New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.</li><li>NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.</li><li>SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.</li><li>The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.</li><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

<ul><li>The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.</li><li>Oceania Healthcare is rated OUTPERFORM due to its resilient demand focus and potential for debt reduction through inventory sell down.</li><li>The New Zealand housing market shows signs of recovery, with sales improving and a stable period for unit price buffers expected over the medium term.</li></ul>

The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.Oceania Healthcare is rated OUTPERFORM due to its resilient demand focus and potential for debt reduction through inventory sell down.The New Zealand housing market shows signs of recovery, with sales improving and a stable period for unit price buffers expected over the medium term.

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) used to dress up weak results to make them look good. In the last two results the opposite has been true.</li><li>Accounting noise aside, RYM delivered at or above our expectations across all our key focus areas.</li><li>Underlying cash flow from operations improved, operating expenses were flat versus 2H24 as cost out offset inflation and care bed growth.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) used to dress up weak results to make them look good. In the last two results the opposite has been true.Accounting noise aside, RYM delivered at or above our expectations across all our key focus areas.Underlying cash flow from operations improved, operating expenses were flat versus 2H24 as cost out offset inflation and care bed growth.

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Result — Structural Gain, Cyclical Pain

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) will report its 1H25 result on Thursday, 28 November.</li><li>After it lifted the veil on a decade of opaque accounting practices and half truths at its FY24 result, we expect its 1H25 result to be a continuation of the transition for RYM.</li><li>Multiple factors will likely impact the result: (1) battling a cyclically subdued housing turnover, (2) completing large legacy high-density developments, (3) moving to a new DMF structure, (4) initiating a sizeable cost out programme, and (5) changing its reporting to a completed/settled basis. </li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) will report its 1H25 result on Thursday, 28 November.After it lifted the veil on a decade of opaque accounting practices and half truths at its FY24 result, we expect its 1H25 result to be a continuation of the transition for RYM.Multiple factors will likely impact the result: (1) battling a cyclically subdued housing turnover, (2) completing large legacy high-density developments, (3) moving to a new DMF structure, (4) initiating a sizeable cost out programme, and (5) changing its reporting to a completed/settled basis. 

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Let Go of Yesterday

New Zealand

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

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Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Result — Structural Gain, Cyclical Pain

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) used to dress up weak results to make them look good. In the last two results the opposite has been true.

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Let Go of Yesterday

After it lifted the veil on a decade of opaque accounting practices and half truths at its FY24 result, we expect its 1H25 result to be a...

Forsyth Barr

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