New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.</li><li>NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.</li><li>SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported annuity earnings down -28% year on year, its lowest since the COVID-impacted 1H20.NTA continued to grow strongly, in contrast to peer Ryman Healthcare, and contracted sales were up ~+30% year on year in July/August 2025; the future looks brighter.SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by a factor of 3x.

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare delivered an encouraging 1Q26 sales update, with new sales in line with projections and resales 12% ahead.</li><li>Forward-looking contracted sales are now running at about 90% of their two-year trailing, seasonally adjusted run rate, up from 75% in the prior quarter.</li><li>The update is a step in reducing the rate of inventory build, even though resales levels remain insufficient to halt inventory build completely.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare delivered an encouraging 1Q26 sales update, with new sales in line with projections and resales 12% ahead.Forward-looking contracted sales are now running at about 90% of their two-year trailing, seasonally adjusted run rate, up from 75% in the prior quarter.The update is a step in reducing the rate of inventory build, even though resales levels remain insufficient to halt inventory build completely.

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare delivered a result with multiple accounting changes, impairments, and one-offs, but lacked clarity on its future vision.</li><li>The erosion of the NTA continued with a larger-than-guided write-down, although the bottom may have been reached according to the analysis.</li><li>Ryman needs to significantly improve resales to enhance performance, with a new target price set at NZ$2.65 following downgrades to earnings and near-term cash-generation.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare delivered a result with multiple accounting changes, impairments, and one-offs, but lacked clarity on its future vision.The erosion of the NTA continued with a larger-than-guided write-down, although the bottom may have been reached according to the analysis.Ryman needs to significantly improve resales to enhance performance, with a new target price set at NZ$2.65 following downgrades to earnings and near-term cash-generation.

Ryman Healthcare FY25 Result—Complexity Without Clarity

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare is set to report its FY25 result on Thursday, 29 May, with expectations of a loss around NZ$100m before adjustments.</li><li>Key metrics to be focused on include gross opex, net debt, and cash flow from existing operations.</li><li>Focus areas include cost control, care fees, sales outlook, impairments, and developments.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare is set to report its FY25 result on Thursday, 29 May, with expectations of a loss around NZ$100m before adjustments.Key metrics to be focused on include gross opex, net debt, and cash flow from existing operations.Focus areas include cost control, care fees, sales outlook, impairments, and developments.

Ryman Healthcare FY25 Preview—Earnings Five Different Ways

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM), under new management, has stuck to its three main focuses: (1) to deliver IFRS profits before tax and fair value (FV) movements, (2) cash flow from existing operations, and (3) cash flow from development.</li><li>One of the key reasons given for the capital raise was to give RYM room to focus on maximising its cash generation.</li><li>This focus is understandable given RYM's recent history of poor cash generation. It reduces the risks in RYM but also limits the upside. </li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM), under new management, has stuck to its three main focuses: (1) to deliver IFRS profits before tax and fair value (FV) movements, (2) cash flow from existing operations, and (3) cash flow from development.One of the key reasons given for the capital raise was to give RYM room to focus on maximising its cash generation.This focus is understandable given RYM's recent history of poor cash generation. It reduces the risks in RYM but also limits the upside. 

Ryman Healthcare - Running Ryman for Cash

New Zealand

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

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Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Summerset Group 1H25 Waiting for the Golden Years to Arrive

SUM stuck its neck out and guided for largely flat net debt from FY25 onwards—a marked change from the last five years, when net debt increased by...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare Back From the Brink

Ryman Healthcare delivered an encouraging 1Q26 sales update, with new sales in line with projections and resales 12% ahead. Forward-looking...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare FY25 Result—Complexity Without Clarity

Ryman Healthcare delivered a result with multiple accounting changes, impairments, and one-offs, but lacked clarity on its future vision.

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare FY25 Preview—Earnings Five Different Ways

Ryman Healthcare is set to report its FY25 result on Thursday, 29 May, with expectations of a loss around NZ$100m before adjustments.

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare - Running Ryman for Cash

We value RYM using our annuity earnings including resale gains and a dividend discount model (DDM). We reinstate our rating at NEUTRAL.

Forsyth Barr

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