'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

MARKET COMPOSITE
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/380/original/2019-01-13_13-31-55.png?1547353946" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75380"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have recovered to 14% by number and 20% by value - just on the 'buying zone' line. As we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-2018-market-review-bear-market-rally-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26917">expected</a>, the Total Market Value has rallied 8.7% and looks to have some further to run, especially if the Yen reverses some of its recent strength. The Bank of Japan provided a 'helping hand' on both 4th and 10th January, the only days this year so far on which the market declined. 
<hr>
SECTORS
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/383/original/2019-01-13_15-22-47.png?1547360595" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75383"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain, predictably, domestic and defensive - REITs, Information Technology, Media and Utilities continue from our previous review with Healthcare and Transportation replacing Food, Beverages and Tobacco and Internet Content &amp; Services. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen. Banks, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment, and Chemicals remain from 23rd December Moving Average Outliers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-moving-average-outliers-year-end-blues" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26895">Insight</a>, with Building Materials replacing Non-Bank Finance. Over the last trading five days, however, there has been a noticeable reversal with Autos, Electrical Equipment, and Machinery all over '55' while Other Consumer Products, Restaurants, Telecommunications and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco are all below '40'.
<hr>
COMPANIES
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/382/original/2019-01-13_15-19-43.png?1547360415" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75382"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
THE +/-100% CLUB - The number of extreme negative outliers reached a peak for 1,352 on December 25th and has since returned to 'normal' levels. We suggested in the previous Insight in this series that such an extreme number of extremes was a signal of a short-term bottom, which, so far, has proved to be correct.
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 
</div>

MARKET COMPOSITE

Source: Japan Analytics
NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have recovered to 14% by number and 20% by value - just on the 'buying zone' line. As we expected, the Total Market Value has rallied 8.7% and looks to have some further to run, especially if the Yen reverses some of its recent strength. The Bank of Japan provided a 'helping hand' on both 4th and 10th January, the only days this year so far on which the market declined. 

SECTORS

LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain, predictably, domestic and defensive - REITs, Information Technology, Media and Utilities continue from our previous review with Healthcare and Transportation replacing Food, Beverages and Tobacco and Internet Content &amp; Services. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen. Banks, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment, and Chemicals remain from 23rd December Moving Average Outliers Insight, with Building Materials replacing Non-Bank Finance. Over the last trading five days, however, there has been a noticeable reversal with Autos, Electrical Equipment, and Machinery all over '55' while Other Consumer Products, Restaurants, Telecommunications and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco are all below '40'.

COMPANIES
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 

Source: Japan Analytics
THE +/-100% CLUB - The number of extreme negative outliers reached a peak for 1,352 on December 25th and has since returned to 'normal' levels. We suggested in the previous Insight in this series that such an extreme number of extremes was a signal of a short-term bottom, which, so far, has proved to be correct.

In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 


Japan: Moving Average Outliers - New Year Rally

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Leading Japanese retail chains across all the major formats had a strong 1H2018 with surprisingly few exceptions.
Although some saw operating profits fall, and most of those that did expect profits to be lower for the year as a whole, other results were particularly impressive given the difficult operating conditions this year due to weather and natural disasters.
The following is a quick snapshot of the state-of-play at major Japanese retailers.

Leading Japanese retail chains across all the major formats had a strong 1H2018 with surprisingly few exceptions.
Although some saw operating profits fall, and most of those that did expect profits to be lower for the year as a whole, other results were particularly impressive given the difficult operating conditions this year due to weather and natural disasters.
The following is a quick snapshot of the state-of-play at major Japanese retailers.

Japan Retail Review 1H2018: Top Retailers Outperform

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Earlier in October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP)</a> and FamilyMart UNY came to an agreement for the former to acquire all of FamilyMart’s holdings in UNY. While a number of IPs have commented on the nature of the deal, in this report we will look at the potential earnings impact of the deal on Donki.
Don Quijote had already acquired a 40% stake in UNY in late 2017 and had begun converting some of the latter’s stores into a new store format named “MEGA Don Quijote UNY”. As of FY06/18, Donki had converted 6 stores, which together witnessed a 90% YoY increase in sales (March–August) from JPY 6.8bn to JPY 13.2bn. During the same period, traffic at the converted stores grew 60% from 20,000 people/day to 32,000. As with its own stores, Donki was able to attract crowds from the younger generation.

Earlier in October, Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP) and FamilyMart UNY came to an agreement for the former to acquire all of FamilyMart’s holdings in UNY. While a number of IPs have commented on the nature of the deal, in this report we will look at the potential earnings impact of the deal on Donki.
Don Quijote had already acquired a 40% stake in UNY in late 2017 and had begun converting some of the latter’s stores into a new store format named “MEGA Don Quijote UNY”. As of FY06/18, Donki had converted 6 stores, which together witnessed a 90% YoY increase in sales (March–August) from JPY 6.8bn to JPY 13.2bn. During the same period, traffic at the converted stores grew 60% from 20,000 people/day to 32,000. As with its own stores, Donki was able to attract crowds from the younger generation.

Don Quijote: Potential Earnings Impact from Conversion of UNY Stores

Fashion retailers had a much better year in 2017-18 as the apparel and accessories market expanded 2.2% after two years of market contraction.
Recent growth has mostly benefited the speciality store and online sectors, but last year department stores also improved, and even the odd GMS chain enjoyed the balmier climate.
As a result, department store market share among the top 100 apparel retailers – which account for 70% of the market – rose for the first time in 15 years.
The market share of the top 100 fell due to better sales at small retailers and independents.
Trading is still tough, however, and retailers are cautious about consumer sentiment going forward.
The winners though are clear to see, with companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2765" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23991" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23991:1">Tokyo Base (3415 JP)</a>, Mash Holdings and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> pushing well ahead of the sector year after year.
The following is a comprehensive review of the Japanese apparel/fashion market in FY2017, and the winners within it.

Fashion retailers had a much better year in 2017-18 as the apparel and accessories market expanded 2.2% after two years of market contraction.
Recent growth has mostly benefited the speciality store and online sectors, but last year department stores also improved, and even the odd GMS chain enjoyed the balmier climate.
As a result, department store market share among the top 100 apparel retailers – which account for 70% of the market – rose for the first time in 15 years.
The market share of the top 100 fell due to better sales at small retailers and independents.
Trading is still tough, however, and retailers are cautious about consumer sentiment going forward.
The winners though are clear to see, with companies like Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Tokyo Base (3415 JP), Mash Holdings and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) pushing well ahead of the sector year after year.
The following is a comprehensive review of the Japanese apparel/fashion market in FY2017, and the winners within it.

The Winners in Japanese Fashion Retailing

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3213:1">Abc Mart Inc (2670 JP)</a> is a Japanese footwear retailer with over 1,200 stores including 264 in overseas locations. Buoyed by a surge in tourism, the company has seen its revenue grow at a CAGR of 7.8% in the last four years. With rising awareness of the ABC  brand  and keen attention to the latest footwear trends, the company has the potential to continue its strong growth, not just in Japan but also overseas.

Abc Mart Inc (2670 JP) is a Japanese footwear retailer with over 1,200 stores including 264 in overseas locations. Buoyed by a surge in tourism, the company has seen its revenue grow at a CAGR of 7.8% in the last four years. With rising awareness of the ABC  brand  and keen attention to the latest footwear trends, the company has the potential to continue its strong growth, not just in Japan but also overseas.

ABC-Mart (2670 JP): Evolving Sneakerhead Culture and Athleisure Products To Continue Drawing Crowds

Japan

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - New Year Rally

MARKET COMPOSITE NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 1H2018: Top Retailers Outperform

Leading Japanese retail chains across all the major formats had a strong 1H2018 with surprisingly few exceptions. Although some saw operating...

Michael Causton

Don Quijote: Potential Earnings Impact from Conversion of UNY Stores

Earlier in October, Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP) and FamilyMart UNY came to an agreement for the former to acquire all of FamilyMart’s holdings...

Chacko Jacob

The Winners in Japanese Fashion Retailing

Fashion retailers had a much better year in 2017-18 as the apparel and accessories market expanded 2.2% after two years of market...

Michael Causton

ABC-Mart (2670 JP): Evolving Sneakerhead Culture and Athleisure Products To Continue Drawing Crowds

Abc Mart Inc (2670 JP) is a Japanese footwear retailer with over 1,200 stores including 264 in overseas locations. Buoyed by a surge in tourism,...

Chacko Jacob

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