Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryohin Keikaku has once again exceeded expectations, posting record sales and profits that suggest its near-term ¥1 trillion target will easily be reached. </li>
<li>While worries over ubiquity remain, the trusting relationship between customer and brand has allowed rapid and successful category expansion which should deliver those targets.</li>
<li>This includes overseas markets where Muji is now gaining momentum again in China and, at last, making the most of its brand in Europe.</li>
</ul>


Ryohin Keikaku has once again exceeded expectations, posting record sales and profits that suggest its near-term ¥1 trillion target will easily be reached. 
While worries over ubiquity remain, the trusting relationship between customer and brand has allowed rapid and successful category expansion which should deliver those targets.
This includes overseas markets where Muji is now gaining momentum again in China and, at last, making the most of its brand in Europe.


Muji: Closing in on ¥1 Trillion with Fresh Ideas

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider's major Japan/global "standard" index.</li>
<li>6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.</li>
<li>They were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. This sets up a possible trade before or into the event.</li>
</ul>


On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider's major Japan/global "standard" index.
6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.
They were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. This sets up a possible trade before or into the event.


[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs - Differing Peer Dynamics - Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>'s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in September 2024.</li>
<li>There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.</li>
</ul>



Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)'s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.


Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

<ul>
<li>Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.</li>
<li>The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. </li>
<li>This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.</li>
</ul>


Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.
The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. 
This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.


Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

Japan

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Muji: Closing in on ¥1 Trillion with Fresh Ideas

Ryohin Keikaku's record sales and profits show strong customer trust driving successful category expansion, with overseas markets like China and...

Michael Causton

[Quiddity Index] August Global Index Japan ADDs - Differing Peer Dynamics - Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

The global index rebalances are liquidity events. The rebalance this time has been tough on traders so far, but Ryohin Keikaku ran pre...

Travis Lundy