Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace</li>
<li>Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels</li>
<li>HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace
Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels
HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID


J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>EU, like the US, is considering lowering "<em>de minimis</em>" import threshold, soon</li>
<li>Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous</li>
<li>Threat of "<em>de minimis</em>" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO</li>
</ul>


EU, like the US, is considering lowering "de minimis" import threshold, soon
Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
Threat of "de minimis" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO


SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)</li>
<li>ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)</li>
<li>Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)
ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)
Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

<ul>
<li>For first time since 2022, carriers' cargo revenue, yield, load factor all rising</li>
<li>Asia outbound, US inbound air cargo tons both improving in early 2024</li>
<li>SHEIN, Temu could account for 40%+ of US inbound air tons from CH, HK, TW</li>
</ul>


For first time since 2022, carriers' cargo revenue, yield, load factor all rising
Asia outbound, US inbound air cargo tons both improving in early 2024
SHEIN, Temu could account for 40%+ of US inbound air tons from CH, HK, TW


Growth of SHEIN, Temu Appears to Be Boosting Asia-US Air Cargo Volume & Pricing

<ul>
<li>CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies</li>
<li>CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity</li>
<li>In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express</li>
</ul>


CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies
CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity
In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express


CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

It appears the EU has joined the US in preparing reforms to the "de minimis" rules that aid SHEIN and its peers by keeping direct-to-consumer...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Growth of SHEIN, Temu Appears to Be Boosting Asia-US Air Cargo Volume & Pricing

There are signs that SHEIN and Temu are boosting Asia-to-US air cargo volume and pricing. We estimate the two platforms account for as much as 40%+...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

It appears the EU has joined the US in preparing reforms to the "de minimis" rules that aid SHEIN and its peers by keeping direct-to-consumer...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

​EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Growth of SHEIN, Temu Appears to Be Boosting Asia-US Air Cargo Volume & Pricing

There are signs that SHEIN and Temu are boosting Asia-to-US air cargo volume and pricing. We estimate the two platforms account for as much as 40%+...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.