Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%</li>
<li>SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged</li>
<li>We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T</li>
</ul>


With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%
SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged
We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T


Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th October, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman (9956 HK)</a></strong>, a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1217/2025121701246.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>The Scheme Doc is now out</strong></a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "<em>fair &amp; reasonable</em>".</li>
<li>Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th October, ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light. 

The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says "fair &amp; reasonable".
Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out.  Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid. 


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. </li>
<li>The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. </li>
<li>The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January. 
The consortium's decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote's success. 
The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile. 


ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong</li>
<li>We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses</li>
<li>We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time</li>
</ul>


Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong
We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses
We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time


Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<h2>Growth of low end driven by Pinduoduo</h2>
<p>The growth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> has spurred growth in China’s express market over the last two years, accounting for 60% or more of incremental growth in parcel volume in 2018. PDD’s emergence has boosted parcel volume growth, but this gift has come at a price: to win business from the merchants operating on PDD’s platform, express companies must offer rock-bottom pricing.</p>
<h2>Volume growth a nice gift, but it comes with a price</h2>
<p>PDD’s emergence offers strong volume growth, accompanied by downward pressure on pricing and margins. To combat these pressures, express companies must aggressively pursue parcel volume share in order to reduce unit costs (and thereby limit margin erosion). With most small express players squeezed out, we believe price competition among the remaining express firms is intensifying, with average parcel pricing down by 12-16% YoY in recent months.</p>
<h2>At high end of express &amp; logistics, less competition</h2>
<p>Away from intensifying competition at the low-end of the express sector, the high-end of China’s express segment features pockets of growth with muted competition. In time-definite (i.e., ‘overnight’) express, international express, supply chain management, and cold-chain logistics, providers tend to compete based on service levels, and their customers tend to be less price-sensitive than those at the low-end of the market. Underlying demand for these services is powered by a gradual ‘consumption upgrade’, helping merchants move high-value goods faster and more reliably compared to mainstream express products. We believe these segments offer shelter from the price competition that has emerged at the low-end of the express sector.</p>
<h2>Express market is bifurcating</h2>
<p>We see two distinct segments developing within express. At the low end, most of the listed express companies are aggressively pursuing volume share gains in order to reduce costs so they can profitably handle the low-priced parcels that are driving sector growth. Meanwhile, at the high end, SF Holding is successfully courting customers who value speed and reliability ahead of low prices. We expect profitability in this latter segment to remain fairly stable, while at the low end we expect profitability to continue eroding.</p>
<h2>Low-end pressure adds to rising capex demand, sliding returns</h2>
<p>The development of a bifurcated market comes at the same time most Chinese express companies are already facing pressures on cash flow and profitability. We believe most of the listed express companies are increasing capital expenditures in order to expand ‘last mile’ service and to build out needed infrastructure in smaller cities and rural areas. We suspect initial returns on these types of investments will be low, compounding downward pressure on margins related to PDD’s rise.</p>
<h2>Focus on high end should produce better results going forward</h2>
<p>Strong downward pressures on margins will make it increasingly difficult for most express companies to convert strong top-line growth into attractive earnings growth. In the medium-term, we believe companies with limited exposure to low-end parcel volumes are more likely to generate attractive strongest earnings growth. </p>

Growth of low end driven by Pinduoduo
The growth of Pinduoduo (PDD US) has spurred growth in China’s express market over the last two years, accounting for 60% or more of incremental growth in parcel volume in 2018. PDD’s emergence has boosted parcel volume growth, but this gift has come at a price: to win business from the merchants operating on PDD’s platform, express companies must offer rock-bottom pricing.
Volume growth a nice gift, but it comes with a price
PDD’s emergence offers strong volume growth, accompanied by downward pressure on pricing and margins. To combat these pressures, express companies must aggressively pursue parcel volume share in order to reduce unit costs (and thereby limit margin erosion). With most small express players squeezed out, we believe price competition among the remaining express firms is intensifying, with average parcel pricing down by 12-16% YoY in recent months.
At high end of express &amp; logistics, less competition
Away from intensifying competition at the low-end of the express sector, the high-end of China’s express segment features pockets of growth with muted competition. In time-definite (i.e., ‘overnight’) express, international express, supply chain management, and cold-chain logistics, providers tend to compete based on service levels, and their customers tend to be less price-sensitive than those at the low-end of the market. Underlying demand for these services is powered by a gradual ‘consumption upgrade’, helping merchants move high-value goods faster and more reliably compared to mainstream express products. We believe these segments offer shelter from the price competition that has emerged at the low-end of the express sector.
Express market is bifurcating
We see two distinct segments developing within express. At the low end, most of the listed express companies are aggressively pursuing volume share gains in order to reduce costs so they can profitably handle the low-priced parcels that are driving sector growth. Meanwhile, at the high end, SF Holding is successfully courting customers who value speed and reliability ahead of low prices. We expect profitability in this latter segment to remain fairly stable, while at the low end we expect profitability to continue eroding.
Low-end pressure adds to rising capex demand, sliding returns
The development of a bifurcated market comes at the same time most Chinese express companies are already facing pressures on cash flow and profitability. We believe most of the listed express companies are increasing capital expenditures in order to expand ‘last mile’ service and to build out needed infrastructure in smaller cities and rural areas. We suspect initial returns on these types of investments will be low, compounding downward pressure on margins related to PDD’s rise.
Focus on high end should produce better results going forward
Strong downward pressures on margins will make it increasingly difficult for most express companies to convert strong top-line growth into attractive earnings growth. In the medium-term, we believe companies with limited exposure to low-end parcel volumes are more likely to generate attractive strongest earnings growth. 

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

SF Holding's unique position within China's eComm fulfillment space allowed it to successfully defend against the margin pressures that afflicted...

Tracking Traffic

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc

Surprising absence of CDH in this latest Doc. Given the ongoing ambiguity as to who owns/controls what, I'm inclined to sit this one out - for now....

David Blennerhassett

ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January

The decision not to raise the share cap and the lack of irrevocables from shareholders with blocking stakes cast doubt on the vote's success. A...

Arun George

Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

We will write more about SF Holding soon as the company prepares to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong. But we believe some of the themes we...

Daniel Hellberg

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