Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Lalatech's largest segment by revenue -- Chinese intra-city on-demand freight -- features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries</li>
<li>At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech's company's dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year</li>
<li>Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces 'hidden' competition from several larger groups</li>
</ul>


Lalatech's largest segment by revenue -- Chinese intra-city on-demand freight -- features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries
At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech's company's dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year
Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces 'hidden' competition from several larger groups


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | 'Unbelievable' Cost Control | Hidden Competition

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 28th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$835.0 million, led by financials, consumer staples, information technology sectors, and offset by health care, communication services, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for stocks including Wuliangye, China Merchants Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 28th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$835.0 million, led by financials, consumer staples, information technology sectors, and offset by health care, communication services, materials.
We highlight flows for stocks including Wuliangye, China Merchants Bank.


Northbound Flows (Mar 28th): Wuliangye, CMB

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

<ul>
<li>In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth</li>
<li>But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period</li>
<li>In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID</li>
</ul>


In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID


ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | 'Unbelievable' Cost Control | Hidden Competition

Chinese intra-city freight platform Lalatech has once again filed to list its shares in Hong Kong, after an earlier filing from September 2023...

Tracking Traffic

Northbound Flows (Mar 28th): Wuliangye, CMB

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Wuliangye, China Merchants Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

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