Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong</li>
<li>Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin</li>
<li>Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
Buyback update &amp; Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus


Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy</li>
<li>In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September</li>
<li>In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view</li>
</ul>


For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy
In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September
In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view


Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Update on the US postage fraud case we reported on earlier: it's far more expansive than previously reported, and last week the judge ordered that the trial begin in August</li>
<li>A new report from the US Congress attacks Temu, SHEIN on two fronts: Xinjiang-made goods and <em>de minimus</em> imports; tighter enforcement or new legislation could soon follow</li>
<li>It's unclear how the postage fraud case and growing Congressional concerns will play out; worst-case, both could dramatically undermine the direct-to-US consumer business model</li>
</ul>


Update on the US postage fraud case we reported on earlier: it's far more expansive than previously reported, and last week the judge ordered that the trial begin in August
A new report from the US Congress attacks Temu, SHEIN on two fronts: Xinjiang-made goods and de minimus imports; tighter enforcement or new legislation could soon follow
It's unclear how the postage fraud case and growing Congressional concerns will play out; worst-case, both could dramatically undermine the direct-to-US consumer business model


New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus '24 EPS

Strong Q4 results from Full Truck Alliance, and growth in all the right places. Guidance for Q1 suggests no slowdown in early '24, and shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Chinese X-border express parcel volume growth has accelerated dramatically in 2023, and unit pricing has fallen sharply. In this note we dissect...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN

We offer an update on a fascinating criminal case set to go to trial next month, plus we outline big risks posed by criticisms of Temu and SHEIN by...

Tracking Traffic

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