Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>August parcel volume growth moderated, but easing price pressure matters more</li>
<li>In July &amp; August, Chinese X-border parcel volume growth re-accelerated</li>
<li>We believe easing price pressure should lead to express margin expansion</li>
</ul>


August parcel volume growth moderated, but easing price pressure matters more
In July &amp; August, Chinese X-border parcel volume growth re-accelerated
We believe easing price pressure should lead to express margin expansion


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Price Pressures Ease | X-Border Re-Accelerates | (September 2024)

<ul>
<li>Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)</li>
<li>At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating</li>
<li>If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look</li>
</ul>


Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)
At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating
If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$36.30 to raise HK$10,128.9 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/foshan-haitian-flavouring-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:187902" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>.</li>
<li>Haitian had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Company (3288 HK) priced its H Share at HK$36.30 to raise HK$10,128.9 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
Haitian had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.


Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenue growth &amp; EBITDA margin both improved noticeably vs Q324 </li>
<li>Additionally, ZTO gave FY25 parcel volume guidance that implies an acceleration of growth</li>
<li>But "key" change in revenue mix is crushing cash returns (Q424 OpCF down -28% Y/Y)</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenue growth &amp; EBITDA margin both improved noticeably vs Q324 
Additionally, ZTO gave FY25 parcel volume guidance that implies an acceleration of growth
But "key" change in revenue mix is crushing cash returns (Q424 OpCF down -28% Y/Y)


Q424 ZTO Express Results & FY25 Guidance: Revenue Growth & Margin Better, But OpCF Shrinking; AVOID

<ul>
<li>On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results</li>
<li>Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins</li>
<li>We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target</li>
</ul>


On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results
Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins
We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target


Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Price Pressures Ease | X-Border Re-Accelerates | (September 2024)

Heavy price pressure from 2023 and the first half of 2024 has eased, which is positive for margins at all of the listed Chinese express companies....

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

There are growing signs the worst of the steep unit price declines that have weighed down the Chinese express sector over the past year are now...

Tracking Traffic

Q424 ZTO Express Results & FY25 Guidance: Revenue Growth & Margin Better, But OpCF Shrinking; AVOID

ZTO's revenue momentum and core margin improved in Q424, but at the cost of deteriorating Cash Flow. We view the strong recent growth of "key...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Full Truck Alliance reported impressive Q4 results on Wednesday in the US, featuring stronger-than-expected revenue growth & expert cost control....

Tracking Traffic

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