ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma.</a><strong>This week you can also find some of our top picks in ASEAN below the fold. </strong></p>
</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/crossasean-strategy-life-after-gojek-and-the-land-of-digital-banking" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37570" rel="noopener">CrossASEAN Strategy - Life After Gojek and the Land of Digital Banking,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> comments on the completion of the latest funding round by Gojek and looks to how local Indonesian banks are progressing with their own digital banking initiatives.</p></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/start-of-systematic-screening-provides-hope-but-widodo-has-yet-to-cordon-java" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37867" rel="noopener">Start of Systematic Screening Provides Hope, but Widodo Has Yet to Cordon Java,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kevin-o-rourke" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060" rel="noopener">Kevin O’Rourke</a> comments on the key political and economic developments over the past week in Indonesia. </p><h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk-smgr-ij-fortress-mentality" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37823" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Fortress Mentality,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest cement producer following a call with management. </p></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/akr-corporindo-akra-ij-industrial-proxy-with-strong-credentials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37643" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Industrial Proxy with Strong Credentials,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's leading chemical and fuel distributor, which has started to see increased contributions from its Surabaya Industrial Estate. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-air-s-massive-rights-issue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37857" rel="noopener">Singapore Air's Massive Rights Issue,</a> events specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)'</a>s recently announced rights issue. </p></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/elec-eltek-a-exit-delisting-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37796" rel="noopener">Elec &amp; Eltek: An Exit/Delisting Offer?,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> comments on this HK and Singapore listed Printed Circuit Board maker in light of a pending announcement. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/btw-warrants-expensive-a-month-ago-even-richer-now-so-better-to-bail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37830" rel="noopener">BTS Warrants - Expensive a Month Ago, Even Richer Now So Better to Bail,</a> events specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits BTS Warrants and suggests it is time to sell. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/investor-pressures-likely-overrated-in-grab-gojek-merger-talks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37628" rel="noopener">Investor Pressures Likely Overrated In Grab-Gojek Merger Talks,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/valerie-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803" rel="noopener">Valerie Law, CFA</a> discusses these rather unlikely merger talks. The Grab-Gojek merger has been widely discussed. In this report, she presents a few arguments as to why it is unlikely to happen in the near-term. This report is rated 'bearish' based on the low probability of a merger.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gojek-gets-additional-funding-indonesia-food-authority-disapproves-of-rumoured-merger-deal-with-grab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37727" rel="noopener">Gojek Gets Additional Funding-Indonesia Food Authority Disapproves of Rumoured Merger Deal with Grab,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/aqila-ali" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1652" rel="noopener">Aqila Ali</a> also discusses the potential for a Grab-Gojek merger. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/keppel-corp-tactical-buy-level-with-macro-heavy-cycle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37721" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp Tactical Buy Level with Macro Heavy Cycle,</a> technical analysis specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-schroeder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381" rel="noopener">Thomas Schroeder</a> works his magic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/advanc-the-best-mobile-operator-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37751" rel="noopener">ADVANC: The Best Mobile Operator in Thailand</a> our friend <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt236.5, which is derived from a DCF methodology (WACC of 10.7% and terminal growth of 2%). </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shr-world-class-resorts-at-a-deeply-discounted-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37797" rel="noopener">SHR: World Class Resorts at a Deeply Discounted Price,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-hotels-resorts-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28924:1" rel="noopener">S Hotels &amp; Resorts PCL (SHR TB)</a> with a BUY rating and a 2020E target price of Bt2.60.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgc-stable-yield-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37861" rel="noopener">BGC: Stable Yield Play,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bg-container-glass-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28453:1" rel="noopener">BG Container Glass PCL (BGC TB)</a> with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt11.0.</p><h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/potential-trade-ideas-asia-pacific-companies-that-may-access-capital-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37862" rel="noopener">Potential Trade Ideas - Asia-Pacific Companies that May Access Capital Markets,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> screens the Asia Pacific region for companies that may need to raise new capital as they brush with debt covenants as a result of the current COVID-19 crisis.</p></div><h2>Credit Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-pacific-earnings-flash-fy-2019-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37803" rel="noopener">First Pacific - Earnings Flash - FY 2019 Results,</a> our friends at credit specialists <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:1350" rel="noopener">Lucror Analytics</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> post its recent results.</p><div><p><strong><em>At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground Insights on companies, economies and stock markets across South East Asia exclusive to Smartkarma.</em></strong></p></div><div><p><strong><em>Our research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long-term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. </em></strong></p></div><div><p><strong><em>We offer bespoke work, company visits and tailor-made trips across South East Asia to our clients through Premium Services on Smartkarma. Please feel free to show your appreciation for any of our insights you find useful using the like button. It makes a difference!</em></strong></p></div>


This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma.This week you can also find some of our top picks in ASEAN below the fold. 
Macro InsightsIn CrossASEAN Strategy - Life After Gojek and the Land of Digital Banking, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh comments on the completion of the latest funding round by Gojek and looks to how local Indonesian banks are progressing with their own digital banking initiatives.In Start of Systematic Screening Provides Hope, but Widodo Has Yet to Cordon Java, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Kevin O’Rourke comments on the key political and economic developments over the past week in Indonesia. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Fortress Mentality, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest cement producer following a call with management. In AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Industrial Proxy with Strong Credentials,Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's leading chemical and fuel distributor, which has started to see increased contributions from its Surabaya Industrial Estate. In Singapore Air's Massive Rights Issue, events specialist David Blennerhassett comments on Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)'s recently announced rights issue. In Elec &amp; Eltek: An Exit/Delisting Offer?,David Blennerhassett comments on this HK and Singapore listed Printed Circuit Board maker in light of a pending announcement. In BTS Warrants - Expensive a Month Ago, Even Richer Now So Better to Bail, events specialist Travis Lundy revisits BTS Warrants and suggests it is time to sell. In Investor Pressures Likely Overrated In Grab-Gojek Merger Talks,Valerie Law, CFA discusses these rather unlikely merger talks. The Grab-Gojek merger has been widely discussed. In this report, she presents a few arguments as to why it is unlikely to happen in the near-term. This report is rated 'bearish' based on the low probability of a merger.In Gojek Gets Additional Funding-Indonesia Food Authority Disapproves of Rumoured Merger Deal with Grab,Aqila Ali also discusses the potential for a Grab-Gojek merger. In Keppel Corp Tactical Buy Level with Macro Heavy Cycle, technical analysis specialist Thomas Schroeder works his magic on Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP).In ADVANC: The Best Mobile Operator in Thailand our friend Country Group initiate coverage of Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt236.5, which is derived from a DCF methodology (WACC of 10.7% and terminal growth of 2%). In SHR: World Class Resorts at a Deeply Discounted Price,Country Group initiate coverage of S Hotels &amp; Resorts PCL (SHR TB) with a BUY rating and a 2020E target price of Bt2.60.In BGC: Stable Yield Play,Country Group initiate coverage of BG Container Glass PCL (BGC TB) with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt11.0.Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Potential Trade Ideas - Asia-Pacific Companies that May Access Capital Markets,Zhen Zhou, Toh screens the Asia Pacific region for companies that may need to raise new capital as they brush with debt covenants as a result of the current COVID-19 crisis.Credit InsightsIn First Pacific - Earnings Flash - FY 2019 Results, our friends at credit specialists Lucror Analytics report back on First Pacific Co (142 HK) post its recent results.At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground Insights on companies, economies and stock markets across South East Asia exclusive to Smartkarma.Our research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long-term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We offer bespoke work, company visits and tailor-made trips across South East Asia to our clients through Premium Services on Smartkarma. Please feel free to show your appreciation for any of our insights you find useful using the like button. It makes a difference!

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Gojek Riding High, Indonesian Cement, and SIA

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

S Hotels & Resorts PCL / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>We initiate coverage of SHR with a BUY rating and a 2020E target price of Bt2.60, derived from 22.0x PE’21E, which is -1 SD of the 5-year trading average of peers MINT and CENTEL.</strong></p>
<p><strong>The story:</strong></p>
<div>•Thai conglomerate is in the process of expanding its footprint in world class resort segment</div>
<div>•Less effect from Covid-19 compared to SET peers</div>
<div>•Trading deep at an NAV discount</div>
<div>•Expect earnings to turn around from late 2021 onward</div>
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<p><strong>Risks: </strong></p>
<div>•Foreign exchange rate fluctuation</div>
<div>•New project failure</div>
<div>•Reliance on third-party sales agents</div>
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<p><strong>Background:</strong> S Hotels and Resorts Public Company Limited (SHR) is a subsidiary of Singha Estate Public Company Limited. SHR is a holding company that is engaged in investment and management of high-end hotels and resorts. Currently, SHR has a total of 4,647 rooms in 39 hotels and resorts in five countries include Thailand, the Republic of Maldives, Republic of Fiji Islands, Mauritius and the United Kingdom.</p>
</div>

We initiate coverage of SHR with a BUY rating and a 2020E target price of Bt2.60, derived from 22.0x PE’21E, which is -1 SD of the 5-year trading average of peers MINT and CENTEL.
The story:
•Thai conglomerate is in the process of expanding its footprint in world class resort segment
•Less effect from Covid-19 compared to SET peers
•Trading deep at an NAV discount
•Expect earnings to turn around from late 2021 onward

 

Risks: 
•Foreign exchange rate fluctuation
•New project failure
•Reliance on third-party sales agents


Background: S Hotels and Resorts Public Company Limited (SHR) is a subsidiary of Singha Estate Public Company Limited. SHR is a holding company that is engaged in investment and management of high-end hotels and resorts. Currently, SHR has a total of 4,647 rooms in 39 hotels and resorts in five countries include Thailand, the Republic of Maldives, Republic of Fiji Islands, Mauritius and the United Kingdom.


SHR: World Class Resorts at a Deeply Discounted Price

Thailand

S Hotels And Resorts Public Company Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in management of hotels and resorts, as well as investments in properties. S Hotels And Resorts serves customers worldwide.

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S Hotels & Resorts PCL (SHR TB)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Gojek Riding High, Indonesian Cement, and SIA

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

SHR: World Class Resorts at a Deeply Discounted Price

We initiate coverage of SHR with a BUY rating and a 2020E target price of Bt2.60, derived from 22.0x PE’21E, which is -1 SD of the 5-year trading...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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52-week Range

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