Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The surprisingly dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde suggests the end of the tightening cycle is in, boding well for Equities and Treasuries.</li>
<li>After quarters of declining or negative earnings and revenue growth, Big Tech companies are finally showing improvement. </li>
<li>After being in Frenzy for three weeks, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has slipped back to Neutral. </li>
</ul>


The surprisingly dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde suggests the end of the tightening cycle is in, boding well for Equities and Treasuries.
After quarters of declining or negative earnings and revenue growth, Big Tech companies are finally showing improvement. 
After being in Frenzy for three weeks, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has slipped back to Neutral. 


The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a great week here with our book as we have switched exposure from US Tech &amp; AI to old-school stuff.</li>
<li>Energy, Materials and Commodities are our favorites on a risk/reward basis.</li>
<li>Our models here keep getting backed by hard data and with commodities- our thesis here is a temporary rebound in Manufacturing:Chart 1: ISM Manufacturing, Order/InventoryWith Goldilocks data ramping up, we have enjoyed some nice green tailwinds to the book.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a great week here with our book as we have switched exposure from US Tech &amp; AI to old-school stuff.
Energy, Materials and Commodities are our favorites on a risk/reward basis.
Our models here keep getting backed by hard data and with commodities- our thesis here is a temporary rebound in Manufacturing:Chart 1: ISM Manufacturing, Order/InventoryWith Goldilocks data ramping up, we have enjoyed some nice green tailwinds to the book.


<ul>
<li>We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.</li>
<li>The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.</li>
<li>We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.</li>
</ul>


We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.
The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.
We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.


Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The hike to 22-year-high 5.375% restores a clearly positive real policy rate. Powell said there's "still a long way to go" before reaching 2% target, so policy must remain restrictive.</li>
<li>We think a mild recession coupled with 6+ months of YoY declines in M2 will enable core PCE inflation to recede to 3.5%YoY by Nov'23 and 2.5% by Jun'24. </li>
<li>Key indicator is MoM change in core PCE. The cumulative MoM gain in core PCE has averaged over 4.5% in the past 29 months. 5.5% peak FF rate by Sep'23. </li>
</ul>


The hike to 22-year-high 5.375% restores a clearly positive real policy rate. Powell said there's "still a long way to go" before reaching 2% target, so policy must remain restrictive.
We think a mild recession coupled with 6+ months of YoY declines in M2 will enable core PCE inflation to recede to 3.5%YoY by Nov'23 and 2.5% by Jun'24. 
Key indicator is MoM change in core PCE. The cumulative MoM gain in core PCE has averaged over 4.5% in the past 29 months. 5.5% peak FF rate by Sep'23. 


With a Positive Real FF Rate Restored, FOMC Hiking Cycle Is Nearly Done

<ul>
<li>Powell sounded much more dovish than during the previous FOMC meeting and had just one message: the Federal Reserve is now fully data-dependent regarding future monetary policy.</li>
<li>Powell believes the Fed is done and highlighted the balance between doing too much or too little. Before, the Fed had shown a clear willingness to risk doing too much.</li>
<li>Since the market was driven by central bank 'hopium,' Powell has taken a key catalyst from markets to move higher.</li>
</ul>


Powell sounded much more dovish than during the previous FOMC meeting and had just one message: the Federal Reserve is now fully data-dependent regarding future monetary policy.
Powell believes the Fed is done and highlighted the balance between doing too much or too little. Before, the Fed had shown a clear willingness to risk doing too much.
Since the market was driven by central bank 'hopium,' Powell has taken a key catalyst from markets to move higher.


Powell Is Done, but Whether the Fed Is Too Depends on the Data

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor (30) – Behold the Dovish Shift!

A surprisingly hawkish tone of central bankers suggests the end of the tightening cycle is near, with positive implications for Equities and...

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Watch: Surfing the Boomer Wave

Hello everyone and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a great week here with our book as we have switched exposure from US...

Steno Research

Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

After the latest FOMC meeting and a dovish-sounding Powell, the odds we have reached the end of the tightening cycle have spiked, boding well for...

Jeroen Blokland

With a Positive Real FF Rate Restored, FOMC Hiking Cycle Is Nearly Done

Core PCE has risen annualised 4.5%+ since CY21. M2 contraction since Dec'22, and imminent recession, should enable core PCE inflation to recede...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Powell Is Done, but Whether the Fed Is Too Depends on the Data

A surprisingly dovish-sounding Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve is done hiking, depriving equity markets of Fed hopium!

Jeroen Blokland