House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.</li><li>The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.</li><li>On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?</li></ul>

The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>


After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.
This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.
Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.


Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed unlikely to ease policy rates quickly. Even with recession and rates on ‘hold’, QT (quantitative tightening) policy will probably continue</li>
<li>US dollar liquidity already skidding badly. QT could reduce Fed Balance Sheet by one-third</li>
<li>QT has highly non-linear effects on financial stability. A crisis could be brewing?</li>
</ul>


Fed unlikely to ease policy rates quickly. Even with recession and rates on ‘hold’, QT (quantitative tightening) policy will probably continue
US dollar liquidity already skidding badly. QT could reduce Fed Balance Sheet by one-third
QT has highly non-linear effects on financial stability. A crisis could be brewing?


Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul><li>Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing.</li><li>The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong.</li><li>The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro crystal ball, but embracing and living by this simple principle: maximizing the odds (and not the ephemeral feeling of infallibility) of achieving good returns while taking predictable amounts of risk.</li></ul>

Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing.The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong.The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro crystal ball, but embracing and living by this simple principle: maximizing the odds (and not the ephemeral feeling of infallibility) of achieving good returns while taking predictable amounts of risk.

On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction

Consumer Discretionary Select / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.</li>
<li>It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.</li>
<li>Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.
It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.
Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.


Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

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Market Radar

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Vermilion Research