Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Risk-on sentiment resulted in more spread tightening than widening in Asia’s US$-denominated bank bonds (x-Japan) during the month of November. In fact, only 4 securities widened in G-Spread terms out of the 100 bonds that we track in the region. Meanwhile, the largest widening was only 15 basis points (bps) month-on-month.India-headquartered bank bonds led in terms of spread tightening over November and dominate our top 10 list. Amongst the India-headquartered banks, several non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) led advances. Relative to year-end spread levels, there is limited upside remaining amongst the top 10 performers of November.In a positive sign, from a momentum perspective, the positive spread movement amongst India’s NBFCs was continuous throughout November. Coronavirus vaccine news, a Goldilocks US election outcome, and the Janet Yellen effect propelled riskier asset prices higher in most markets and India was no exception.   While the trend is your friend, ordinarily thin trading markets could meet concerns that economic recovery is fully priced, and profit-taking may ensue during December. In addition, there is the risk that the market has gotten ahead of itself as bank management’s loss expectations are yet to be tested. Post-COVID-19, India’s operating environment starts from an already high level of non-performing assets and each bank’s loan loss predictive ability has significant room for improvement. The same could be said for the other outperforming bank bonds in our top 10 list.

Risk-on sentiment resulted in more spread tightening than widening in Asia’s US$-denominated bank bonds (x-Japan) during the month of November. In fact, only 4 securities widened in G-Spread terms out of the 100 bonds that we track in the region. Meanwhile, the largest widening was only 15 basis points (bps) month-on-month.India-headquartered bank bonds led in terms of spread tightening over November and dominate our top 10 list. Amongst the India-headquartered banks, several non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) led advances. Relative to year-end spread levels, there is limited upside remaining amongst the top 10 performers of November.In a positive sign, from a momentum perspective, the positive spread movement amongst India’s NBFCs was continuous throughout November. Coronavirus vaccine news, a Goldilocks US election outcome, and the Janet Yellen effect propelled riskier asset prices higher in most markets and India was no exception.   While the trend is your friend, ordinarily thin trading markets could meet concerns that economic recovery is fully priced, and profit-taking may ensue during December. In addition, there is the risk that the market has gotten ahead of itself as bank management’s loss expectations are yet to be tested. Post-COVID-19, India’s operating environment starts from an already high level of non-performing assets and each bank’s loan loss predictive ability has significant room for improvement. The same could be said for the other outperforming bank bonds in our top 10 list.

Bank Credit Compass: Asia’s November Performance and December Expectations

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Solid Quarter: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 7.1 bn, increasing INR 4.4 bn (160.0%) linked quarter. Much of the linked quarter improvement can be attributed to net interest income growth of INR 4.7 bn (64.8%) resultant of INR 135.0 bn (14.5%) loan growth, NIM improvement of 137 bp (by our calculation) of 137 bp to 4.49%, and a buyback of bonds reducing debt by 9%; and*Credit Improving:During FY 2Q21, stated Stage 3 NPLs improved INR 4.3 bn (21.1%), declining 68 bp over the period to 1.52%.  Reinforcing this improvement, we find that net new NPLs were negative by a whopping INR 13.0 bn or over 100% on an annualized basis.

*Solid Quarter: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 7.1 bn, increasing INR 4.4 bn (160.0%) linked quarter. Much of the linked quarter improvement can be attributed to net interest income growth of INR 4.7 bn (64.8%) resultant of INR 135.0 bn (14.5%) loan growth, NIM improvement of 137 bp (by our calculation) of 137 bp to 4.49%, and a buyback of bonds reducing debt by 9%; and*Credit Improving:During FY 2Q21, stated Stage 3 NPLs improved INR 4.3 bn (21.1%), declining 68 bp over the period to 1.52%.  Reinforcing this improvement, we find that net new NPLs were negative by a whopping INR 13.0 bn or over 100% on an annualized basis. 

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – Rocking and Rolling

Executive Summary: We noted last weekend that Treasury yields could gap down as True-Blue election sweep expectations declined and that bank valuations would follow. Both outcomes took place during the first part of the week. President Trump has gained enough in polls for traders with bearish positions in long-dated Treasuries to start unwinding them.  If Republicans’ retain the Senate, then fiscal stimulus may be lower than currently expected.  The December VIX future may also underprice the risk of a contested election result while thin markets keep volatility elevated.On Wednesday, most US stock indices posted their biggest single-day drop since June while European shares met five-month lows. As such, implied equity volatility jumped to its highest readings in 6 weeks. The US dollar and commodities also exhibited risk-off behaviour. Soaring Coronavirus cases in the US and Europe added to market jitters on the eventual time to a US federal stimulus package. The lack of a strong bullish reaction in Treasuries while equities sold-off reinforced concerns that low yields significantly reduce hedging protection. Within this background, Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds underperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, in concert with developed market risk-off sentiment. The top performing bonds were overwhelmingly short maturity Senior Unsecured in nature. Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes widened during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.Financial institutions only issued US$4.5 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19515:1" rel="noopener">Industrial Bank Co Ltd A (601166 CH)</a> and Kookmin Bank (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:718:1" rel="noopener">KB Financial Group (105560 KS))</a> were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The primary market issuance window may be closing very early this year.In terms of potential mergers and acquisitions, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> is considering an offer for IndusInd Bank, which IndusInd subsequently denied. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kotak-indusind-happy-indusind-bondholders-move-to-overweight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44542" rel="noopener">Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight</a> for more details. On Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> reported a 53% year-on-year decline in second quarter net profit that missed average analyst estimates. Despite the earnings miss and acquisition dismissal, IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon bond rose in price during the week.Market Outlook: Market reactions to soaring Coronavirus contagion, underpriced election outcome risks and sidelined treasury investors may augment market illiquidity and impact bank valuation over the near term.

Executive Summary: We noted last weekend that Treasury yields could gap down as True-Blue election sweep expectations declined and that bank valuations would follow. Both outcomes took place during the first part of the week. President Trump has gained enough in polls for traders with bearish positions in long-dated Treasuries to start unwinding them.  If Republicans’ retain the Senate, then fiscal stimulus may be lower than currently expected.  The December VIX future may also underprice the risk of a contested election result while thin markets keep volatility elevated.On Wednesday, most US stock indices posted their biggest single-day drop since June while European shares met five-month lows. As such, implied equity volatility jumped to its highest readings in 6 weeks. The US dollar and commodities also exhibited risk-off behaviour. Soaring Coronavirus cases in the US and Europe added to market jitters on the eventual time to a US federal stimulus package. The lack of a strong bullish reaction in Treasuries while equities sold-off reinforced concerns that low yields significantly reduce hedging protection. Within this background, Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds underperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, in concert with developed market risk-off sentiment. The top performing bonds were overwhelmingly short maturity Senior Unsecured in nature. Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes widened during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.Financial institutions only issued US$4.5 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the Industrial Bank Co Ltd A (601166 CH) and Kookmin Bank (KB Financial Group (105560 KS)) were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The primary market issuance window may be closing very early this year.In terms of potential mergers and acquisitions, Bloomberg reported that Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) is considering an offer for IndusInd Bank, which IndusInd subsequently denied. Please see Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight for more details. On Friday, Indusind Bank (IIB IN) reported a 53% year-on-year decline in second quarter net profit that missed average analyst estimates. Despite the earnings miss and acquisition dismissal, IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon bond rose in price during the week.Market Outlook: Market reactions to soaring Coronavirus contagion, underpriced election outcome risks and sidelined treasury investors may augment market illiquidity and impact bank valuation over the near term.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Reduction on Election and Virus Uncertainty

*In-Line Results: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 9.6 bn - essentially in-line with FY 1Q21 results. While in line on a linked quarter basis, we do note improvement in the NIM by 70 bp to 9.9% which drove the INR 1.1 bn (3.3%) increase in net interest income;*Credit Risk Increasing: On a linked quarter basis, we found that gross NPAs actually declined INR 5.2 bn (26.9%)  - primarily on account of FY 2Q21 NCOs of INR 20.5 bn which appear to have accelerated again. Credit remains weak with net new NPAs of INR 15.3 or an alarming 434.1% annualized increase. Loss reserves also remain light in the neighbourhood of INR 66.4 bn by our calculation or over five quarter of pre-tax results; and*Lowered Guidance: For AUM, Bajaj expects AUM growth during FY 2021 of just between 6%-7% - well below previous guidance of 10-12%. Several other headwinds over the near-term are also worrisome, including: 1) the elevated payment-bounce rate; and 2) the lack of clarity surrounding the flexi loan book.

*In-Line Results: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 9.6 bn - essentially in-line with FY 1Q21 results. While in line on a linked quarter basis, we do note improvement in the NIM by 70 bp to 9.9% which drove the INR 1.1 bn (3.3%) increase in net interest income;*Credit Risk Increasing: On a linked quarter basis, we found that gross NPAs actually declined INR 5.2 bn (26.9%)  - primarily on account of FY 2Q21 NCOs of INR 20.5 bn which appear to have accelerated again. Credit remains weak with net new NPAs of INR 15.3 or an alarming 434.1% annualized increase. Loss reserves also remain light in the neighbourhood of INR 66.4 bn by our calculation or over five quarter of pre-tax results; and*Lowered Guidance: For AUM, Bajaj expects AUM growth during FY 2021 of just between 6%-7% - well below previous guidance of 10-12%. Several other headwinds over the near-term are also worrisome, including: 1) the elevated payment-bounce rate; and 2) the lack of clarity surrounding the flexi loan book.

US high yield markets outperformed Asia’s as expectations of an eventual US stimulus package met hopes for a less contentious US election result as Joe Biden’s polling lead grew. The relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. We expect this decompression to end on a buy the rumour, sell the news, trade on prospects for a Democratic Party election sweep over the next few weeks.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening accelerated on continued improved risk sentiment and reflation expectations. Concurrently, President Trump’s vacillation between off, then on, economic stimulus talks were met with bewilderment, if not outright health concerns.  Short-term interest rate futures spiked upwards as the news of President Trumps COVID-19 diagnosis changed election outcome projections and prospects of eventual federal stimulus pushed rate expectations even higher. In US equity markets, futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) and spot VIX Index levels fell on lower perceived downside risks and higher expectations of a less contentious election result.Emerging market capital inflows rebounded strongly during the week as US dollar weakness returned. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits.Meanwhile, Asia bank credit investors favoured a mix of high quality and higher yield Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and subordinated debt, in-line with the tepid increase in Asia’s risk sentiment. As the week closed, the Reserve Bank of India announced additional unconventional monetary policy stimulus measures aimed at improving credit transmission via the local bond market. This should benefit the more active debt capital market participants.Concurrently, only US$5.6 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD and Euros in the form of Senior HoldCo, Senior Non-preferred and AT1 bonds. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank (KBANK TB)</a> issued an AT1 bond, following the successful placement two weeks ago by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank (BBL TB)</a>. We anticipate additional AT1 issuance by Thai-headquartered banks due to their capital stack needs. For more on this and the unique challenges of these banks, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-constraints-debt-capital-issuance-needs-and-potential-impacts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43884" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital Constraints and Debt Issuance Needs</a> as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity</a>.  Looking forward, China is reported to be considering the issuance of an offshore US$-bond for the fourth straight year. The transaction could occur in the next week. Market Outlook A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations.Inside: In this weekly, we elaborate on these themes as we review global credit index levels, equity volatility,  interest rates, Eurodollar futures and fund flows as well as bank bond spread moves and recent debt issuance to identify possible investment opportunities and potential pitfalls in Asia-headquartered bank bonds.

US high yield markets outperformed Asia’s as expectations of an eventual US stimulus package met hopes for a less contentious US election result as Joe Biden’s polling lead grew. The relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. We expect this decompression to end on a buy the rumour, sell the news, trade on prospects for a Democratic Party election sweep over the next few weeks.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening accelerated on continued improved risk sentiment and reflation expectations. Concurrently, President Trump’s vacillation between off, then on, economic stimulus talks were met with bewilderment, if not outright health concerns.  Short-term interest rate futures spiked upwards as the news of President Trumps COVID-19 diagnosis changed election outcome projections and prospects of eventual federal stimulus pushed rate expectations even higher. In US equity markets, futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) and spot VIX Index levels fell on lower perceived downside risks and higher expectations of a less contentious election result.Emerging market capital inflows rebounded strongly during the week as US dollar weakness returned. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits.Meanwhile, Asia bank credit investors favoured a mix of high quality and higher yield Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and subordinated debt, in-line with the tepid increase in Asia’s risk sentiment. As the week closed, the Reserve Bank of India announced additional unconventional monetary policy stimulus measures aimed at improving credit transmission via the local bond market. This should benefit the more active debt capital market participants.Concurrently, only US$5.6 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD and Euros in the form of Senior HoldCo, Senior Non-preferred and AT1 bonds. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) issued an AT1 bond, following the successful placement two weeks ago by Bangkok Bank (BBL TB). We anticipate additional AT1 issuance by Thai-headquartered banks due to their capital stack needs. For more on this and the unique challenges of these banks, please see Thai Bank Capital Constraints and Debt Issuance Needs as well as Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity.  Looking forward, China is reported to be considering the issuance of an offshore US$-bond for the fourth straight year. The transaction could occur in the next week. Market Outlook A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations.Inside: In this weekly, we elaborate on these themes as we review global credit index levels, equity volatility,  interest rates, Eurodollar futures and fund flows as well as bank bond spread moves and recent debt issuance to identify possible investment opportunities and potential pitfalls in Asia-headquartered bank bonds.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk-On as US Election and Stimulus Outlooks Sharpen

India

Sammaan Capital is a mortgage-focused Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC) in India, offering home loans, loans against property, and financial solutions for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and small businesses. The company operates on an asset-light model with a focus on co-lending partnerships. Headquartered in New Delhi, India, it was incorporated on May 10, 2005.

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Sammaan Capital (SAMMAANC IN)

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A concise must-read on US$-risk sentiment derived from equity markets, rates, issuance, dollar levels and capital flows to frame near term Asia...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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