European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sampo-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21782:1" rel="noopener">Sampo Oyj (SAMPO FH)</a>, top shareholder (49.5%) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topdanmark-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22509:1" rel="noopener">Topdanmark A/S (TOP DC)</a>  is launching a recommended all-share public takeover offer to buyout the minorities (1 TOP = 1.25 SAMPO).</li>
<li>Despite being a cross-border merger, this deal, focused on scale and cost-cutting, is poised for success given rising costs in the insurance sector due to inflation. </li>
<li>My valuation as a takeover target is DKK 352/share, which indicates, in my view, that the offer is fair. Gross spread is 2.4%. I would be long the spread.</li>
</ul>



Sampo Oyj (SAMPO FH), top shareholder (49.5%) of Topdanmark A/S (TOP DC)  is launching a recommended all-share public takeover offer to buyout the minorities (1 TOP = 1.25 SAMPO).
Despite being a cross-border merger, this deal, focused on scale and cost-cutting, is poised for success given rising costs in the insurance sector due to inflation. 
My valuation as a takeover target is DKK 352/share, which indicates, in my view, that the offer is fair. Gross spread is 2.4%. I would be long the spread.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.</li>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels</li>
</ul>


Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels


Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Hastings Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Leading personal lines insurance company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hastings-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21977:1" rel="noopener">Hastings Group (HSTG LN)</a> yesterday received a cash takeover offer of 250p plus a 4.5p interim dividend from a consortium including its largest shareholder and a strategic investor. With the shares priced 0.8% below the total price despite requiring numerous regulatory clearances, it is possible that the upside is priced into the shares.  Our view on the deal is below.

Leading personal lines insurance company Hastings Group (HSTG LN) yesterday received a cash takeover offer of 250p plus a 4.5p interim dividend from a consortium including its largest shareholder and a strategic investor. With the shares priced 0.8% below the total price despite requiring numerous regulatory clearances, it is possible that the upside is priced into the shares.  Our view on the deal is below.

Hastings Gets a Bid from Largest Shareholder. Priced as a Done Deal but Could It Face Delay?

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

Finland

Sampo Oyj operates as an insurance brokerage firm. The Company offers commercial and private property and casualty insurance products, as well as life insurance products. Sampo serves customers worldwide.

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Sampo Oyj (SAMPO FH)

Sampo/Topdanmark: Fair Takeout Offer

Sampo Oyj is launching a recommended all-share public takeover offer for Topdanmark A/S minorities, with fair valuation and potential for success...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

Hastings Gets a Bid from Largest Shareholder. Priced as a Done Deal but Could It Face Delay?

Leading personal lines insurance company Hastings Group (HSTG LN) yesterday received a cash takeover offer of 250p plus a 4.5p interim dividend...

Rickin Thakrar

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sampo/Topdanmark: Fair Takeout Offer

​Sampo Oyj is launching a recommended all-share public takeover offer for Topdanmark A/S minorities, with fair valuation and potential for success...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

Hastings Gets a Bid from Largest Shareholder. Priced as a Done Deal but Could It Face Delay?

Leading personal lines insurance company Hastings Group (HSTG LN) yesterday received a cash takeover offer of 250p plus a 4.5p interim dividend...

Rickin Thakrar

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Sampo Oyj is launching a recommended all-share public takeover offer for Topdanmark A/S minorities, with fair valuation and potential for success...