Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over the last year, the discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-pref-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23591:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> has increased from 5% to 17%.</li>
<li>The preferred shares have adequate liquidity, a large issue market cap, and now trade at a much higher dividend yield. A special dividend will further increase the dividend yield differential.</li>
<li>Breaking from history, the preferred shares discount has continued to increase as the stock has moved higher. With the preferred shares trading near its widest discount, that could change.</li>
</ul>


Over the last year, the discount of Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS) to Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has increased from 5% to 17%.
The preferred shares have adequate liquidity, a large issue market cap, and now trade at a much higher dividend yield. A special dividend will further increase the dividend yield differential.
Breaking from history, the preferred shares discount has continued to increase as the stock has moved higher. With the preferred shares trading near its widest discount, that could change.


Samsung Electronics: Prefs Need to Catch Up

Managing Director, Who's Good

Jungmin(Charlotte) Hong

Managing Director

ASIA’S FIRST AI-DRIVEN ESG INSIGHT PROVIDER

Who's Good

Using AI technologies and public data, Who’s Good provides objective and up-to-date corporate ESG insights on Asian companies.

WHY WHO'S GOOD

* Time-sensitive: Time is the essence in finance. Artificial Intelligence (AI) can process vast amount of information in a short span of time. Our powerful algorithm offers real-time in-depth corporate ESG analysis with out compromising its quality.
* Objective: We turned to public big data and news big data as source to base our analysis on and to preserve impartiality. We leverage 350 public big data sources and 93 news data sources in Korea to uncover insights.
* Insightful: Who’s Good ESG analysis coverage extends to all listed and non-listed companies in Korea. This allows us to provide a comprehensive insight into the Korean market.
* Global approach to ESG: Our ESG research framework is built on international standards and principles including UN Global Compact, ISO 26000, ICGN and CFA Guidelines on Corporate Governance to meet the global standards.

<ul>
<li>Former Samsung executive attempted to construct replicated factory 1.5 km away from Samsung Electronics' Chinese plant by stealing technology</li>
<li>Prosecutors described this case as a leakage of “core national technologies”</li>
<li>This technology theft incident falls under the category of risk oversight, and currently, Samsung Electronics' company risk is rated at an extreme level of 4.0</li>
</ul>


Former Samsung executive attempted to construct replicated factory 1.5 km away from Samsung Electronics' Chinese plant by stealing technology
Prosecutors described this case as a leakage of “core national technologies”
This technology theft incident falls under the category of risk oversight, and currently, Samsung Electronics' company risk is rated at an extreme level of 4.0


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Ongoing Struggles with Technology Leaks and Governance Issues

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>CSOP told Korean media this Sammy ETF product targets Korea's local retail traders wanting leveraged or short KOSPI exposure, especially Sammy, without using Korea’s derivatives market—essentially a cross-border retail play.</li>
<li>Korean retail’s insanely strong demand for anything leveraged, combined with limited domestic derivatives access, makes significant local inflows very likely—far from a moonshot.</li>
<li>TRS use doesn’t guarantee 1:1 futures buying—depends on broker hedging. But, with Samsung futures volume surging, heavy retail flows in CSOP ETF could cause contango and a basis arb opportunity.</li>
</ul>


CSOP told Korean media this Sammy ETF product targets Korea's local retail traders wanting leveraged or short KOSPI exposure, especially Sammy, without using Korea’s derivatives market—essentially a cross-border retail play.
Korean retail’s insanely strong demand for anything leveraged, combined with limited domestic derivatives access, makes significant local inflows very likely—far from a moonshot.
TRS use doesn’t guarantee 1:1 futures buying—depends on broker hedging. But, with Samsung futures volume surging, heavy retail flows in CSOP ETF could cause contango and a basis arb opportunity.


CSOP Sammy ETF + Korean Retail Leverage Frenzy = Contango Basis Arb Alert

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

Samsung Electronics: Prefs Need to Catch Up

Samsung Electronics preferred shares have a large market cap, are liquid, and offer a higher div yield compared to the ordinary shares. With the...

Brian Freitas

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Ongoing Struggles with Technology Leaks and Governance Issues

Samsung Electronics faces recurrent technology leakage, including the replication of entire factories, prompting a closer examination of their...

Jungmin(Charlotte) Hong

CSOP Sammy ETF + Korean Retail Leverage Frenzy = Contango Basis Arb Alert

This post covers CSOP Sammy ETF and Korean retail’s wild appetite for leveraged plays — time to gear up for a juicy basis arb if contango pops off.

Sanghyun Park

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