Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.</li>
<li>Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.</li>
<li>The timing of the next shortage is still in question.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.
Prices appear to have reached cost.  They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.
The timing of the next shortage is still in question.


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Samsung's Q1 2023 operating profit has collapsed to 0.6 trillion Korean won (TKW), down from 4.31 TKW in Q2 2022 and 14.12 TWK in Q1 2022</li>
<li>A promise to "meaningfully lower" memory production sent competitor shares soaring, presumably in anticipation of a faster end to the current memory downturn.</li>
<li>The memory production cut report is elusive and vaguely attributed. We don't anticipate a return to meaningful profitability in the memory segment until Q1 2024. </li>
</ul>


Samsung's Q1 2023 operating profit has collapsed to 0.6 trillion Korean won (TKW), down from 4.31 TKW in Q2 2022 and 14.12 TWK in Q1 2022
A promise to "meaningfully lower" memory production sent competitor shares soaring, presumably in anticipation of a faster end to the current memory downturn.
The memory production cut report is elusive and vaguely attributed. We don't anticipate a return to meaningful profitability in the memory segment until Q1 2024. 


Samsung Q1 2023 Profit Collapse Triggers Memory Production Cut Promise In Regulatory Filing

<ul>
<li>Q1 2023 revenue of ~US$16.7 billion was at the bottom end of the guided range </li>
<li>Despite the inauspicious start, Q1 revenue still represents sequential growth of 3.6% year on year.</li>
<li>TSMC's earnings commentary on April 20 next will set the stage for how recovery looks across the broader semiconductor industry</li>
</ul>


Q1 2023 revenue of ~US$16.7 billion was at the bottom end of the guided range 
Despite the inauspicious start, Q1 revenue still represents sequential growth of 3.6% year on year.
TSMC's earnings commentary on April 20 next will set the stage for how recovery looks across the broader semiconductor industry


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung announced that it would reduce memory chip production in light of crashing profits, this is after the company had previously said it would not reduce production. Memory names rallied.</li>
<li>Hon Hai announced a $820m investment plan for EV manufacturing in southern Taiwan.</li>
<li>Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions targeting China will take effect starting in July.</li>
</ul>


Samsung announced that it would reduce memory chip production in light of crashing profits, this is after the company had previously said it would not reduce production. Memory names rallied.
Hon Hai announced a $820m investment plan for EV manufacturing in southern Taiwan.
Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions targeting China will take effect starting in July.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Finally Announces Chip Production Cuts; Hon Hai's New EV Factory

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>LT RSI's typically maintain a 40-80 range in sustainable uptrends and a 20-60 range in sustainable downtrends. Quarterly RSI has maintained a 45-85 range since 2001 (LT uptrend bias).</li>
<li>The material correction of 2021/2022 has produced a high probability confirmation of a renewed LT uptrend (quarterly Morning Star pattern). Minimum target range at 74300/79610 (+15-25%) in the coming year.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
LT RSI's typically maintain a 40-80 range in sustainable uptrends and a 20-60 range in sustainable downtrends. Quarterly RSI has maintained a 45-85 range since 2001 (LT uptrend bias).
The material correction of 2021/2022 has produced a high probability confirmation of a renewed LT uptrend (quarterly Morning Star pattern). Minimum target range at 74300/79610 (+15-25%) in the coming year.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Bullish LT Uptrend Confirmation in Q1 2023 Implies 15-25% Upside

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

No Signs of a Chip Recovery

Has the chip downturn ended? No. Is there any sign that it's going to end soon? Again, no. This Insight provides concrete data points to...

Jim Handy

Samsung Q1 2023 Profit Collapse Triggers Memory Production Cut Promise In Regulatory Filing

Samsung's Q1 2023 operating profit collapsed to 0.6 TKW, down from 4.31 TKW in Q2 22 and 14.12 TWK in Q1 22. Don't anticipate a return to...

William Keating

TSMC March Revenue Falls 10.9% MoM

Q1 2023 revenue of ~US$16.7 billion was at the bottom end of the guided range. Despite the inauspicious start, Q1 revenue still represents...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Finally Announces Chip Production Cuts; Hon Hai's New EV Factory

Samsung reversed its production capacity strategy after suffering losses. Also, Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Bullish LT Uptrend Confirmation in Q1 2023 Implies 15-25% Upside

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

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