Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Local intel says Samsung’s 1c-based 12-high HBM4 is basically locked in to sample to NVIDIA by end of this month or early next.</li>
<li>No hard proof Samsung hit 70% yield, but inside chatter’s bullish, internal mood’s upbeat, and that’s what’s driving the local market to chase the 1c HBM4 hype.</li>
<li>With the Samsung Life Law quietly sidelined in recent reform talks, Samsung seems to have read the room and is now going full throttle on the HBM push.</li>
</ul>


Local intel says Samsung’s 1c-based 12-high HBM4 is basically locked in to sample to NVIDIA by end of this month or early next.
No hard proof Samsung hit 70% yield, but inside chatter’s bullish, internal mood’s upbeat, and that’s what’s driving the local market to chase the 1c HBM4 hype.
With the Samsung Life Law quietly sidelined in recent reform talks, Samsung seems to have read the room and is now going full throttle on the HBM push.


Field-Checking Samsung HBM4 1c Yield Buzz & Samsung Life Law Play Inside Look

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.</li>
<li>Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.</li>
<li>Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.</li>
</ul>


Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.
Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.
Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.


Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>1st July the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. </li>
<li>Samsung official announcement is worse: operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex. </li>
<li>Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q OP KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. </li>
</ul>


1st July the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. 
Samsung official announcement is worse: operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex. 
Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q OP KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. 


Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> have discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan announced on July 8th. Read the details in their insights.</li>
<li><strong>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-outlook-as-foundry-spin-off-gains-momentum" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest insight maintained our BUY recommendation:</a> the stock rallied during the following 2 weeks, reaching 64,700, then was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-weekly-tactical-outlook-july-7-to-july-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">marked as "very overbought" in our latest Global Tactical Weekly view</a>.</strong></li>
<li>The stock started to pull back last Friday, after reaching extremely overbought levels (64700). This insight presents a tactical view for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics</a> direction, for the next 2-3 weeks. </li>
</ul>



Douglas Kim and Sanghyun Park have discussed Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan announced on July 8th. Read the details in their insights.
Our latest insight maintained our BUY recommendation: the stock rallied during the following 2 weeks, reaching 64,700, then was marked as "very overbought" in our latest Global Tactical Weekly view.
The stock started to pull back last Friday, after reaching extremely overbought levels (64700). This insight presents a tactical view for Samsung Electronics direction, for the next 2-3 weeks. 


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. </li>
<li>Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. </li>
<li>The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. 
Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. 
The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. 


Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Field-Checking Samsung HBM4 1c Yield Buzz & Samsung Life Law Play Inside Look

Some bearish noise circling this morning on Samsung’s HBM4 timeline—2H mass production now likely slipping to 2025, with PRA pushed to Q4. Early...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

This post walks through Samsung’s daily buyback flows (compiled in the attached Excel), identifying a notable flow/price sync that played out...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Field-Checking Samsung HBM4 1c Yield Buzz & Samsung Life Law Play Inside Look

Some bearish noise circling this morning on Samsung’s HBM4 timeline—2H mass production now likely slipping to 2025, with PRA pushed to Q4. Early...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

This post walks through Samsung’s daily buyback flows (compiled in the attached Excel), identifying a notable flow/price sync that played out...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

​Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

​Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won

Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be...

Douglas Kim

Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...