Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics paid out a final quarterly dividend of 566 won per common share and 567 won per preferred share. The total dividend amount reached approximately 3.75 trillion won. </li>
<li>All in all, the consensus DPS forecast of 3,291 won for Samsung Electronics in 2026 appears to be too low. </li>
<li>A more likely scenarios is for the consensus to raise the DPS forecast by 30-50% or more to 5,000 won+ (from 3,291 won) for 2026 in the next several months. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics paid out a final quarterly dividend of 566 won per common share and 567 won per preferred share. The total dividend amount reached approximately 3.75 trillion won. 
All in all, the consensus DPS forecast of 3,291 won for Samsung Electronics in 2026 appears to be too low. 
A more likely scenarios is for the consensus to raise the DPS forecast by 30-50% or more to 5,000 won+ (from 3,291 won) for 2026 in the next several months. 


Samsung Electronics - Pays Out Special Dividend & Consensus Likely to Raise DPS by 30%+ for 2026

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Two stocks explain the selling. Samsung and SK Hynix were 77% of September's foreign net selling and c.93% of January–July's. Outside them, foreigners are not leaving Korea.</li>
<li>
Timing and buyers matter. ₩102tn of the ₩135tn sold since May went in May–June; corporates bought ₩31.4tn in September. Buybacks are c.63% done and may finish by mid-October.</li>
<li>
The open question is FY27, not exports. Consensus profit sits c.24% above the Q3 run-rate. Samsung's expected 7–8 October prelims and post-buyback flows are the next tests.</li>
</ul>



Two stocks explain the selling. Samsung and SK Hynix were 77% of September's foreign net selling and c.93% of January–July's. Outside them, foreigners are not leaving Korea.

Timing and buyers matter. ₩102tn of the ₩135tn sold since May went in May–June; corporates bought ₩31.4tn in September. Buybacks are c.63% done and may finish by mid-October.

The open question is FY27, not exports. Consensus profit sits c.24% above the Q3 run-rate. Samsung's expected 7–8 October prelims and post-buyback flows are the next tests.


South Korea's Microchip Exports Are Booming. So Why Are Foreigners Still Selling Its Stock Market?

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The one-ETF-per-desk rule matters because concentrated hedging flow can blow out single-stock futures basis, creating ugly contango and juicy cash-and-carry opportunities as one desk dominates futures buying.</li>
<li>Focus on pre-loading long-basis positions 1–2 months ahead, monitor contango closely, set short-basis trades, and capture the basis blowout once ETF flows hit.</li>
<li>ETF listing likely pushes June flows into September, creating a timing arb: short front months (June/July), long Sep, capturing curve steepening and widened calendar spreads.</li>
</ul>


The one-ETF-per-desk rule matters because concentrated hedging flow can blow out single-stock futures basis, creating ugly contango and juicy cash-and-carry opportunities as one desk dominates futures buying.
Focus on pre-loading long-basis positions 1–2 months ahead, monitor contango closely, set short-basis trades, and capture the basis blowout once ETF flows hit.
ETF listing likely pushes June flows into September, creating a timing arb: short front months (June/July), long Sep, capturing curve steepening and widened calendar spreads.


Front-Running Korea’s 2x Single-Stock ETFs: Basis Blowouts & Calendar Spread Arb Pre-June Launch

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics announced that it will pay a special dividend of 1.3 trillion won for 4Q 2025.</li>
<li>Samsung Electronics had excellent results in 4Q 2025. It beat consensus sales and operating profit estimates by 4.8% and 20.1%, respectively in 4Q 2025.</li>
<li>The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics announced that it will pay a special dividend of 1.3 trillion won for 4Q 2025.
Samsung Electronics had excellent results in 4Q 2025. It beat consensus sales and operating profit estimates by 4.8% and 20.1%, respectively in 4Q 2025.
The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.


Samsung Electronics: A 20% Beat in OP for 4Q25 and a Special Dividend of 1.3 Trillion Won

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Following extraordinary price swings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> last week, combined AUM in KRX-listed 2x long ETFs retreated from its June peak but remains 47% above launch levels.</li>
<li>Medium-Term returns expose significant performance drag: since launch, Samsung Electronics has fallen 21.0%, while the leveraged index declined 51.8%; net flows also shifted towards outflows in late July.</li>
<li>This Insight examines AUM, flows and return multiples across the long and inverse products, showing how daily rebalancing can undermine performance even when the directional call appears correct.</li>
</ul>


Following extraordinary price swings in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) last week, combined AUM in KRX-listed 2x long ETFs retreated from its June peak but remains 47% above launch levels.
Medium-Term returns expose significant performance drag: since launch, Samsung Electronics has fallen 21.0%, while the leveraged index declined 51.8%; net flows also shifted towards outflows in late July.
This Insight examines AUM, flows and return multiples across the long and inverse products, showing how daily rebalancing can undermine performance even when the directional call appears correct.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF AUM Retreats as Performance Drag Mounts

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Samsung Electronics - Pays Out Special Dividend & Consensus Likely to Raise DPS by 30%+ for 2026

Consensus DPS forecast of 3,291 won for Samsung Electronics in 2026 appears to be too low. I expect the consensus to raise the DPS forecast by 30...

Douglas Kim

South Korea's Microchip Exports Are Booming. So Why Are Foreigners Still Selling Its Stock Market?

Record chip exports, record foreign selling. The gap closes once you see who sold, when, and who bought: two stocks, mostly before exports peaked,...

Mo Aziz

Front-Running Korea’s 2x Single-Stock ETFs: Basis Blowouts & Calendar Spread Arb Pre-June Launch

This post looks into front-running Korea’s 2x single-stock ETFs: basis blowouts & calendar spread arb ahead of June launch.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics: A 20% Beat in OP for 4Q25 and a Special Dividend of 1.3 Trillion Won

The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF AUM Retreats as Performance Drag Mounts

KRX-listed 2x ETFs on Samsung Electronics saw AUM retreat from the June peak, while daily rebalancing exposed performance drag in both long and...

Gaudenz Schneider

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