Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This is a brief update to our recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-post-72b-capital-return-plan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">posted last week</a>.</li>
<li>The stock closed last week up, second week up in a row and extremely high profit target reached (short-term): our models flashed a overbought/sell signal.</li>
<li>On Monday Samsung Electronics fell -9%. This insight contains the updated SUPPORT MODEL to determine where to buy again the stock.
</li>
</ul>


This is a brief update to our recent Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) insight posted last week.
The stock closed last week up, second week up in a row and extremely high profit target reached (short-term): our models flashed a overbought/sell signal.
On Monday Samsung Electronics fell -9%. This insight contains the updated SUPPORT MODEL to determine where to buy again the stock.



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical UPDATE Post-9% Monday Sell-Off

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> gained 7.2% in August MTD, but combined 2x leveraged ETF AUM fell 3.2% to KRW 3.1tn.</li>
<li>Cumulative net outflows reached KRW 534bn MTD, with all leveraged ETFs recording reductions in units outstanding.</li>
<li>Despite Samsung Electronics falling 8.3% since launch, the 2x inverse ETF has lost 56.4%, reducing its AUM to approximately KRW 15bn.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 7.2% in August MTD, but combined 2x leveraged ETF AUM fell 3.2% to KRW 3.1tn.
Cumulative net outflows reached KRW 534bn MTD, with all leveraged ETFs recording reductions in units outstanding.
Despite Samsung Electronics falling 8.3% since launch, the 2x inverse ETF has lost 56.4%, reducing its AUM to approximately KRW 15bn.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF Investors Exit into the August Rally

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.</li>
<li>Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.</li>
<li>Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.
Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.


This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung sees KRW 90tn to KRW 110tn of 2026 shareholder returns, with around KRW 30tn in 3Q dividends and the balance decided in January 2027.</li>
<li>Samsung’s KRW 110tn FCF payout ceiling looks likely, while the KRW 150tn view is too aggressive. The KRW 27.5tn special dividend is more dividend heavy than expected.</li>
<li>No cancellation focused buyback was announced, signaling limited confidence in memory pricing. With returns heavily dividend skewed, the near term Samsung downside looks hard to avoid.</li>
</ul>


Samsung sees KRW 90tn to KRW 110tn of 2026 shareholder returns, with around KRW 30tn in 3Q dividends and the balance decided in January 2027.
Samsung’s KRW 110tn FCF payout ceiling looks likely, while the KRW 150tn view is too aggressive. The KRW 27.5tn special dividend is more dividend heavy than expected.
No cancellation focused buyback was announced, signaling limited confidence in memory pricing. With returns heavily dividend skewed, the near term Samsung downside looks hard to avoid.


Samsung Return: ₩27.5tn Special Dividend, No Immediate Cancellations Raise Memory Pivot Concerns

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> scooped <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s $72B payout plan on Aug 19—a day prior to mainstream media adoption that triggered Thursday’s Samsung +9.49% surge.</li>
<li>On Aug 2 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-position-for-next-leg-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we advised positioning LONG in Samsung Electronics at/below 240 to capture the next leg of upside</a>. The stock bottomed the following week at 227.5. </li>
<li>
Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung</a> became overbought, this was signaled in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weekly-tactical-recap-tencent-sk-hynix-samsung-ks200-hitachi-advantest-corp-hanwa-solutions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WEEKLY Tactical Recap</a>. The stock fell this week (as expected) but the payout plan news propped the stock up again.</li>
</ul>



Sanghyun Park scooped Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s $72B payout plan on Aug 19—a day prior to mainstream media adoption that triggered Thursday’s Samsung +9.49% surge.
On Aug 2 we advised positioning LONG in Samsung Electronics at/below 240 to capture the next leg of upside. The stock bottomed the following week at 227.5. 

Last week Samsung became overbought, this was signaled in our WEEKLY Tactical Recap. The stock fell this week (as expected) but the payout plan news propped the stock up again.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Post-$72B Capital Return Plan

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (SMSD LI)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (SMSD LI)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical UPDATE Post-9% Monday Sell-Off

Monday sell-off is overdone in our view; our tactical model forecasts long reversal. Pullback duration expected: 1-3 weeks. Core support zones and...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF Investors Exit into the August Rally

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 7.2% in August MTD and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 10.4%, yet the ETFs recorded net outflows as investors...

Gaudenz Schneider

This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

This week in AI: OpenAI scrapped GPT-6.1 Astra and shipped Sol, Anthropic released Sonnet 5.5 at half Opus's price, and Google launched Gemini 4...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Samsung Return: ₩27.5tn Special Dividend, No Immediate Cancellations Raise Memory Pivot Concerns

Samsung return disclosure today: KRW 27.5tn special dividend, but no immediate cancellations raises memory price pivot concerns, near term downside...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Post-$72B Capital Return Plan

Following extreme swings between overbought and oversold states in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), we outline our quantitative support levels and...

Nico Rosti

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