Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The stock’s still below 1x PBR. But with Samsung’s tech gaps and slowdowns, going all-in on an outright long here off the back of this buyback feels way too early</li>
<li>The key is whether pref discounts tighten like 2015, but with a more balanced buyback this time and narrowing pref discounts, making a pref rally harder to predict short-term.</li>
<li>The goal’s the same as 2015—boosting the family’s control. If the remaining buyback leans pref-heavy, it could further tighten pref discounts, creating a potential opportunity to play the compression.</li>
</ul>


The stock’s still below 1x PBR. But with Samsung’s tech gaps and slowdowns, going all-in on an outright long here off the back of this buyback feels way too early
The key is whether pref discounts tighten like 2015, but with a more balanced buyback this time and narrowing pref discounts, making a pref rally harder to predict short-term.
The goal’s the same as 2015—boosting the family’s control. If the remaining buyback leans pref-heavy, it could further tighten pref discounts, creating a potential opportunity to play the compression.


Sammy's Massive Buyback: Play the Pref Compression, Not Outright Long

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Three Chinese solar firms accused of tax evasion totaling US$2.64B in India, facing legal scrutiny and potential repercussions</li><li>TSMC takes sustainable approach with new zero-waste center in Taichung, reducing environmental impact by 130,000 tons of waste annually</li><li>Zeiss expands presence in India with new capability center, showcasing commitment to innovation and growth in the country, while TSMC recruits PhD talent from Japan for semiconductor research efforts</li></ul>

Three Chinese solar firms accused of tax evasion totaling US$2.64B in India, facing legal scrutiny and potential repercussionsTSMC takes sustainable approach with new zero-waste center in Taichung, reducing environmental impact by 130,000 tons of waste annuallyZeiss expands presence in India with new capability center, showcasing commitment to innovation and growth in the country, while TSMC recruits PhD talent from Japan for semiconductor research efforts

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Nov-2024): 3 Chinese solar firms accused of US$2.64B tax dodge in India.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. </li>
<li>What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. </li>
<li>The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. </li>
</ul>


ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. 
What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. 
The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. 


ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in KT&amp;G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in KT&amp;G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI

<ul>
<li>Most loans with collateral floors are at or below thresholds, and all three court deposits are near or under a 30% drop from their initial valuation.</li>
<li>No solid intel on share sales yet, and it's unlikely they’ll sell Samsung Electronics after a 30% dip. They may focus on their stakes in Samsung Life or Samsung SDS.</li>
<li>There's talk Samsung might boost prices to help the family avoid the collateral floor issue, but with DRAM demand down, a major shareholder return seems unlikely for now.</li>
</ul>


Most loans with collateral floors are at or below thresholds, and all three court deposits are near or under a 30% drop from their initial valuation.
No solid intel on share sales yet, and it's unlikely they’ll sell Samsung Electronics after a 30% dip. They may focus on their stakes in Samsung Life or Samsung SDS.
There's talk Samsung might boost prices to help the family avoid the collateral floor issue, but with DRAM demand down, a major shareholder return seems unlikely for now.


Situation Flagged: Sammy Stock Hits Level that Squeezes Family’s Loan Collateral Floor

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Sammy's Massive Buyback: Play the Pref Compression, Not Outright Long

This post breaks down Samsung Electronics’ massive buyback: Instead of going all in on a straight long, keep an eye on the pref compression play....

Sanghyun Park

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Nov-2024): 3 Chinese solar firms accused of US$2.64B tax dodge in India.

Chinese solar firms face tax dodge allegations in India, TSMC cuts waste in Taichung, Zeiss opens center in India, TSMC addresses discrimination...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Situation Flagged: Sammy Stock Hits Level that Squeezes Family’s Loan Collateral Floor

Samsung Electronics hits a level squeezing the Samsung family’s stock-backed loan collateral floor, tied to their inheritance tax—definitely a key...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sammy's Massive Buyback: Play the Pref Compression, Not Outright Long

This post breaks down Samsung Electronics’ massive buyback: Instead of going all in on a straight long, keep an eye on the pref compression play....

Sanghyun Park

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (15-Nov-2024): 3 Chinese solar firms accused of US$2.64B tax dodge in India.

Chinese solar firms face tax dodge allegations in India, TSMC cuts waste in Taichung, Zeiss opens center in India, TSMC addresses discrimination...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

​ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Situation Flagged: Sammy Stock Hits Level that Squeezes Family’s Loan Collateral Floor

Samsung Electronics hits a level squeezing the Samsung family’s stock-backed loan collateral floor, tied to their inheritance tax—definitely a key...

Sanghyun Park

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...