Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Local intel says Samsung’s 1c-based 12-high HBM4 is basically locked in to sample to NVIDIA by end of this month or early next.</li>
<li>No hard proof Samsung hit 70% yield, but inside chatter’s bullish, internal mood’s upbeat, and that’s what’s driving the local market to chase the 1c HBM4 hype.</li>
<li>With the Samsung Life Law quietly sidelined in recent reform talks, Samsung seems to have read the room and is now going full throttle on the HBM push.</li>
</ul>


Local intel says Samsung’s 1c-based 12-high HBM4 is basically locked in to sample to NVIDIA by end of this month or early next.
No hard proof Samsung hit 70% yield, but inside chatter’s bullish, internal mood’s upbeat, and that’s what’s driving the local market to chase the 1c HBM4 hype.
With the Samsung Life Law quietly sidelined in recent reform talks, Samsung seems to have read the room and is now going full throttle on the HBM push.


Field-Checking Samsung HBM4 1c Yield Buzz & Samsung Life Law Play Inside Look

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>1st July the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. </li>
<li>Samsung official announcement is worse: operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex. </li>
<li>Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q OP KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. </li>
</ul>


1st July the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. 
Samsung official announcement is worse: operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex. 
Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q OP KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. 


Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> have discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan announced on July 8th. Read the details in their insights.</li>
<li><strong>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-outlook-as-foundry-spin-off-gains-momentum" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest insight maintained our BUY recommendation:</a> the stock rallied during the following 2 weeks, reaching 64,700, then was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-weekly-tactical-outlook-july-7-to-july-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">marked as "very overbought" in our latest Global Tactical Weekly view</a>.</strong></li>
<li>The stock started to pull back last Friday, after reaching extremely overbought levels (64700). This insight presents a tactical view for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics</a> direction, for the next 2-3 weeks. </li>
</ul>



Douglas Kim and Sanghyun Park have discussed Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan announced on July 8th. Read the details in their insights.
Our latest insight maintained our BUY recommendation: the stock rallied during the following 2 weeks, reaching 64,700, then was marked as "very overbought" in our latest Global Tactical Weekly view.
The stock started to pull back last Friday, after reaching extremely overbought levels (64700). This insight presents a tactical view for Samsung Electronics direction, for the next 2-3 weeks. 


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. </li>
<li>Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. </li>
<li>The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. 
Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. 
The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. 


Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.</li>
<li>If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.</li>
<li>Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.</li>
</ul>


If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.
If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.
Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.


Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Field-Checking Samsung HBM4 1c Yield Buzz & Samsung Life Law Play Inside Look

This is a field-check on the buzz around Samsung’s HBM4 1c process hitting that critical 70% yield milestone, plus an inside look at the Samsung...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...

Nico Rosti

Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

A deep dive into Samsung’s third-leg buyback: stock comp vs. cancellations, preferred share impacts, and potential block trades on the horizon.

Sanghyun Park

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Field-Checking Samsung HBM4 1c Yield Buzz & Samsung Life Law Play Inside Look

This is a field-check on the buzz around Samsung’s HBM4 1c process hitting that critical 70% yield milestone, plus an inside look at the Samsung...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

​Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

​Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won

Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be...

Douglas Kim

Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

A deep dive into Samsung’s third-leg buyback: stock comp vs. cancellations, preferred share impacts, and potential block trades on the horizon.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...