Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.</li>
<li>
<strong>OVERSOLD</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> </li>
<li>
<strong>OVERBOUGHT</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the only stock clearly overbought. </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.

OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , NIFTY Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX 

OVERBOUGHT: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the only stock clearly overbought. 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>U.S. 2nm Production May Begin Sooner Than Expected — Is TSMC Responding to Unprecedented N2 Demand?</li>
<li>Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher </li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA &amp; EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure </li>
</ul>


U.S. 2nm Production May Begin Sooner Than Expected — Is TSMC Responding to Unprecedented N2 Demand?
Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher 
TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA &amp; EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>'s 3Q25 might be decline 5-10% QoQ, reflecting 2H25 US tariffs impacts and Chinese opponent's competition.   </li>
<li>The Foldable handset may be indicated a new era to come, and we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> shall be one of the DDIC winners.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> is long staying with NT$450~650 since the beginning of 2024, and the current price is at the relative low point.</li>
</ul>


We expect Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)'s 3Q25 might be decline 5-10% QoQ, reflecting 2H25 US tariffs impacts and Chinese opponent's competition.   
The Foldable handset may be indicated a new era to come, and we believe Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) shall be one of the DDIC winners.  
The stock price of Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) is long staying with NT$450~650 since the beginning of 2024, and the current price is at the relative low point.


Novatek (3034.TT): FX Impact Persists; 3Q25 May Be a Down Quarter.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated holding was USD626.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,003mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER, Samsung H.I..</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated holding was USD626.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,003mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER, Samsung H.I..


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 1st): Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Tokyo Electron's share price dropped 18% on Friday following the announcement of weak Q1 results and a huge downward revision to H2 FY Mar-26 guidance. </li>
<li>Push-Outs and/or cancellations of orders due to the uncertainty caused by President Trump apparently caught managment by surprise. Costs also rising as management ramps up capex and R&amp;D.</li>
<li>Impact of Trump's yet-to-be-announced tariffs on semiconductors is still unknown, but 15% base rate on Japan already a negative. </li>
</ul>


Tokyo Electron's share price dropped 18% on Friday following the announcement of weak Q1 results and a huge downward revision to H2 FY Mar-26 guidance. 
Push-Outs and/or cancellations of orders due to the uncertainty caused by President Trump apparently caught managment by surprise. Costs also rising as management ramps up capex and R&amp;D.
Impact of Trump's yet-to-be-announced tariffs on semiconductors is still unknown, but 15% base rate on Japan already a negative. 


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision?

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): FX Impact Persists; 3Q25 May Be a Down Quarter.

Novatek 3Q25 expected to decline 5-10% due to US tariffs and Chinese competition, but potential DDIC winner in foldable handset era. Stock price...

Patrick Liao

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 1st): Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision?

Weak 1Q and big downward revision to sales and profit guidance reveals poor visibility into customer uncertainty, plus impact of tariffs, problems...

Scott Foster

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

​Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

​TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): FX Impact Persists; 3Q25 May Be a Down Quarter.

​Novatek 3Q25 expected to decline 5-10% due to US tariffs and Chinese competition, but potential DDIC winner in foldable handset era. Stock price...

Patrick Liao

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 1st): Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor, NAVER

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Motor,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Why the Big Downward Revision?

Weak 1Q and big downward revision to sales and profit guidance reveals poor visibility into customer uncertainty, plus impact of tariffs, problems...

Scott Foster

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Novatek 3Q25 expected to decline 5-10% due to US tariffs and Chinese competition, but potential DDIC winner in foldable handset era. Stock price...