Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 17 February.</li>
<li>The top 10 stock picks (bi-weekly) include Hyundai G.F. Holding, Binggrae, Cheil Worldwide, Hana Tour, Samsung Electronics (pref), Samsung E&amp;A, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Orion Corp, and Samsung Life Insurance. </li>
<li>We started to incorporate top negative catalysts along with positive catalysts in our top stock picks bi-weekly. Top negative catalyst is tariffs. We tried to exclude companies exposed to tariffs.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 17 February.
The top 10 stock picks (bi-weekly) include Hyundai G.F. Holding, Binggrae, Cheil Worldwide, Hana Tour, Samsung Electronics (pref), Samsung E&amp;A, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Orion Corp, and Samsung Life Insurance. 
We started to incorporate top negative catalysts along with positive catalysts in our top stock picks bi-weekly. Top negative catalyst is tariffs. We tried to exclude companies exposed to tariffs.


Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (17 February 2025)

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

<ul>
<li>Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.</li>
<li>Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.</li>
<li>Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card's value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.
Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.
Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card's value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.


Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

<ul>
<li>Once Samsung F&amp;M burns treasury shares, Samsung Life’s stake hits 16.93%. If they avoid a subsidiary, they’ll need to dump ~817K shares. Today’s ruling makes that move much less likely.</li>
<li>Samsung Life’s value-up announcement could be major, likely dropping around their earnings call on February 20, with solid intel backing this move.</li>
<li>The balance of dividends vs. buybacks, plus Samsung Life’s 10% stake ceiling, will drive volatility for Samsung Electronics. Samsung Life’s value-up release, before Samsung Electronics', will boost market clarity.</li>
</ul>


Once Samsung F&amp;M burns treasury shares, Samsung Life’s stake hits 16.93%. If they avoid a subsidiary, they’ll need to dump ~817K shares. Today’s ruling makes that move much less likely.
Samsung Life’s value-up announcement could be major, likely dropping around their earnings call on February 20, with solid intel backing this move.
The balance of dividends vs. buybacks, plus Samsung Life’s 10% stake ceiling, will drive volatility for Samsung Electronics. Samsung Life’s value-up release, before Samsung Electronics', will boost market clarity.


Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 31 January, Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance (000810 KS) announced a comprehensive corporate value up plan.</li>
<li>The three major areas of focus include K-ICS ratio (220%), ROE targets of 11-13%, and total shareholder returns to 50% by 2028. </li>
<li>The company plans to reduce the treasury shares as a percentage of total outstanding shares from 15.9% to 5% by 2028 (10.9% of total outstanding shares over over four years).</li>
</ul>


On 31 January, Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance (000810 KS) announced a comprehensive corporate value up plan.
The three major areas of focus include K-ICS ratio (220%), ROE targets of 11-13%, and total shareholder returns to 50% by 2028. 
The company plans to reduce the treasury shares as a percentage of total outstanding shares from 15.9% to 5% by 2028 (10.9% of total outstanding shares over over four years).


Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: Strong Corporate Value Up Plan

South Korea

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

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Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (17 February 2025)

The top 10 stock picks (bi-weekly) include Hyundai G.F. Holding, Binggrae, Cheil Worldwide, Hana Tour, Samsung Electronics (pref), Samsung E&A,...

Douglas Kim

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

Sanghyun Park

Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

This post makes a call on when the remaining three of Samsung’s financial players (other than Samsung Fire) will drop their value-up announcements.

Sanghyun Park

Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action

Late tday, local news outlets are buzzing with reports that Samsung Life is seriously looking into taking over Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance by...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: Strong Corporate Value Up Plan

Samsung F&M Insurance plans to reduce the treasury shares as a percentage of total outstanding shares from 15.9% to 5% by 2028 (10.9% of total...

Douglas Kim

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