Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In our view, the sharp increase in the lending balance is one of the signs of many investors preparing for a pull-back in the Korean stock market.</li>
<li>The lending balance of the Korean stock market surged from 47.3 trillion won on 2 January 2025 to 90.4 trillion won as of 20 June 2025.</li>
<li>The rising lending balance in the Korean stock market could be construed as a bearish sign. </li>
</ul>


In our view, the sharp increase in the lending balance is one of the signs of many investors preparing for a pull-back in the Korean stock market.
The lending balance of the Korean stock market surged from 47.3 trillion won on 2 January 2025 to 90.4 trillion won as of 20 June 2025.
The rising lending balance in the Korean stock market could be construed as a bearish sign. 


A Sharp Increase in the Lending Balance of Korean Stock Market Suggests A Pull-Back

Index Rebalance

SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF / Index Rebalance

SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF (495850 KS)

<ul>
<li>There has been a sharp increase in AUM of ETFs tracking the Korea Value-Up Index in 2026. </li>
<li>Net assets of the 13 Korea Value-Up ETFs totaled 3.1 trillion won as of 17 April 2026, up 143% YTD (up from 1.26 trillion won as of 2 January 2026).</li>
<li>Korea Value-Up Index closed at 2,826.61 on 17 April 2026, up 53% from 2 January 2026, outperforming KOSPI and KOSPI200 (up 44.3% and 49.9%, respectively in the same period). </li>
</ul>


There has been a sharp increase in AUM of ETFs tracking the Korea Value-Up Index in 2026. 
Net assets of the 13 Korea Value-Up ETFs totaled 3.1 trillion won as of 17 April 2026, up 143% YTD (up from 1.26 trillion won as of 2 January 2026).
Korea Value-Up Index closed at 2,826.61 on 17 April 2026, up 53% from 2 January 2026, outperforming KOSPI and KOSPI200 (up 44.3% and 49.9%, respectively in the same period). 


A Sharp Increase in the AUM of ETFs Tracking the Korea Value-Up Index in 2026

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>This afternoon, local media has been buzzing about the potential deployment of the ₩10T Market Stabilization Fund, with signs pointing to its first inflow into the market in five years.</li>
<li>It’s likely to create a supply-demand imbalance, driving significant price action and requiring adjustments to our short-term outlook for the Korean market.</li>
<li>Most of the money is expected to flow into KOSPI 200 ETFs, so we should watch for a major passive flow impact during KOSPI 200 rebalancing in June and December.</li>
</ul>


This afternoon, local media has been buzzing about the potential deployment of the ₩10T Market Stabilization Fund, with signs pointing to its first inflow into the market in five years.
It’s likely to create a supply-demand imbalance, driving significant price action and requiring adjustments to our short-term outlook for the Korean market.
Most of the money is expected to flow into KOSPI 200 ETFs, so we should watch for a major passive flow impact during KOSPI 200 rebalancing in June and December.


Talk of Deploying Korean Market Stabilization Fund Ramps Up Today

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For March KOSPI 200 futures, expect a 0.95% to 1% yield for spot-futures arbitrage, with contango depending on year-end ex-div trends and passive inflows.</li>
<li>Passive inflows into the value-up index in January and spillover effects into K200 futures, potentially fueling year-end contango due to overlap with KOSPI 200.</li>
<li>Prop trader dynamics are cooling off: Tax-driven buying in December, selling in January likely to ease, reducing the past backwardation. Without it, expect higher volatility in K200 futures.</li>
</ul>


For March KOSPI 200 futures, expect a 0.95% to 1% yield for spot-futures arbitrage, with contango depending on year-end ex-div trends and passive inflows.
Passive inflows into the value-up index in January and spillover effects into K200 futures, potentially fueling year-end contango due to overlap with KOSPI 200.
Prop trader dynamics are cooling off: Tax-driven buying in December, selling in January likely to ease, reducing the past backwardation. Without it, expect higher volatility in K200 futures.


Digging into the Year-End Divvy Arbitrage Game in Korea's Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

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Samsung KODEX 200 ETF (069500 KS)

A Sharp Increase in the Lending Balance of Korean Stock Market Suggests A Pull-Back

In our view, the sharp increase in the lending balance is one of the signs of many investors preparing for a pull-back in the Korean stock market.

Douglas Kim

A Sharp Increase in the AUM of ETFs Tracking the Korea Value-Up Index in 2026

Net assets of the 13 Korea Value-Up ETFs totaled 3.1 trillion won as of 17 April 2026, up 143% YTD (up from 1.26 trillion won as of 2 January 2026).

Douglas Kim

Talk of Deploying Korean Market Stabilization Fund Ramps Up Today

Talk of deploying the Korean Market Stabilization Fund has been picking up in the local market today. This post breaks it down and analyzes the...

Sanghyun Park

Digging into the Year-End Divvy Arbitrage Game in Korea's Market

This post delves into the year-end dividend arbitrage landscape in the Korean stock market, shedding light on the shifting dynamics that are...

Sanghyun Park

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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