Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dongwon Group's decision to merge Dongwon F&amp;B and Dongwon Industries into one company is a positive move.</li>
<li>Dongwon F&amp;B will be incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dongwon Industries and will be delisted.</li>
<li>Post stock swap between Dongwon Industries and Dongwon F&amp;B, the surviving entity (Dongwon Industries) is a likely candidate for KOSPI 200 inclusion in 2H 2025/2026.</li>
</ul>


Dongwon Group's decision to merge Dongwon F&amp;B and Dongwon Industries into one company is a positive move.
Dongwon F&amp;B will be incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dongwon Industries and will be delisted.
Post stock swap between Dongwon Industries and Dongwon F&amp;B, the surviving entity (Dongwon Industries) is a likely candidate for KOSPI 200 inclusion in 2H 2025/2026.


Dongwon F&B: Delisting and Incorporation as a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Dongwon Industries

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nongshim announced that it plans to increase the prices of its instant noodles and snack products starting next week. </li>
<li>Nongshim plans to raise the retail prices of 14 instant noodle products by 7.2% on average and three snack products by 7.4% starting Monday (10 March).</li>
<li>We estimate the consensus to raise their earnings estimates by 5-10%+ in 2025 and 2026, driven by the higher product prices of major instant noodles and snacks. </li>
</ul>


Nongshim announced that it plans to increase the prices of its instant noodles and snack products starting next week. 
Nongshim plans to raise the retail prices of 14 instant noodle products by 7.2% on average and three snack products by 7.4% starting Monday (10 March).
We estimate the consensus to raise their earnings estimates by 5-10%+ in 2025 and 2026, driven by the higher product prices of major instant noodles and snacks. 


<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>One of the big thematic events on the Korean stock market has been the expectation that China could lift ban on Korean popular culture (Hallyu) as early as May 2025. </li>
<li>China's President Xi recently stated <em>"Cultural exchanges are a valuable part of our bilateral relations [between China and Korea]. We should avoid any problems occurring in handling such matters.” </em>
</li>
<li>We provide a list of 40 stocks in Korea that could most benefit from the end of lifting ban of Korean popular culture. </li>
</ul>


One of the big thematic events on the Korean stock market has been the expectation that China could lift ban on Korean popular culture (Hallyu) as early as May 2025. 
China's President Xi recently stated "Cultural exchanges are a valuable part of our bilateral relations [between China and Korea]. We should avoid any problems occurring in handling such matters.” 

We provide a list of 40 stocks in Korea that could most benefit from the end of lifting ban of Korean popular culture. 


China Could Lift Ban on Korean Popular Culture (Hallyu) As Early As May 2025

South Korea

Samyang Foods Co., Ltd. manufactures instant and processed food products, such as noodles, snacks, cooking oil, and feed.  The Company also produces dairy goods including milk, cheese, and ice cream.

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Samyang Foods (003230 KS)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Dongwon F&B: Delisting and Incorporation as a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Dongwon Industries

Dongwon Group announced a major reorganization plan on 14 April. Dongwon F&B (049770 KS) will be delisted and incorporated as a wholly owned...

Douglas Kim

Nongshim Raises Instant Noodles Prices

Nongshim announced that it plans to increase the prices of its instant noodles and snack products. We believe this price increase by Nongshim will...

Douglas Kim

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

China Could Lift Ban on Korean Popular Culture (Hallyu) As Early As May 2025

One of the big thematic events that have impacted the Korean stock market this week has been the expectation that China could lift ban on Korean...

Douglas Kim

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