Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>"Buy the Worst" strategy returned 1.9% in 2022, sharply outperformed HSI's 15% drop. In the last two years, this strategy recorded massive aggregate outperformance of 41pp against HSI.</li>
<li>For 2023, we expect to switch into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden (2007 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Aggressive investors can consider shorting 2022 best-performing portfolio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua (1088 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


"Buy the Worst" strategy returned 1.9% in 2022, sharply outperformed HSI's 15% drop. In the last two years, this strategy recorded massive aggregate outperformance of 41pp against HSI.
For 2023, we expect to switch into Country Garden (2007 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK) and Techtronic Industries (669 HK). 
Aggressive investors can consider shorting 2022 best-performing portfolio of Sands China (1928 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK), China Shenhua (1088 HK) and China Unicom (762 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Big Win in 2022 and Let's See if It Can Sustain in 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanzhun-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33368:1" rel="noopener">Kanzhun (BZ US)</a> a.k.a. has been listed in the US since about the same time as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a>, and it had similar but minor tech issues pre-listing. </li>
<li>On Friday 16 December, the company announced it would conduct a Listing by Introduction in Hong Kong under the ticker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanzhun-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36622:1" rel="noopener">Zhipin (2076 HK)</a>, listing on 22 Dec. </li>
<li>That creates an interesting launch supply/demand dynamic, likely HS Tech inclusion in March 2023, and then Southbound much later in 2023.</li>
</ul>



Kanzhun (BZ US) a.k.a. has been listed in the US since about the same time as DiDi Global (DIDI US), and it had similar but minor tech issues pre-listing. 
On Friday 16 December, the company announced it would conduct a Listing by Introduction in Hong Kong under the ticker Zhipin (2076 HK), listing on 22 Dec. 
That creates an interesting launch supply/demand dynamic, likely HS Tech inclusion in March 2023, and then Southbound much later in 2023.


Boss Zhipin (2076 HK | BZ US) HK Dual Primary Listing on 22 Dec - Index, Southbound, and SPECIAL

David Blennerhassett

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 26 November, Macau’s government renewed the concession periods of the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener"></a>, a last-minute interloper, failed in its bid to secure a license. It scored lowest under the government's bidding review. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China (2282 HK)</a> topped the scoresheets. </li>
<li>As with all incumbents, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> eked out strong gains following the renewal. Melco's current discount to NAV is currently 20%.</li>
</ul>


On the 26 November, Macau’s government renewed the concession periods of the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), a last-minute interloper, failed in its bid to secure a license. It scored lowest under the government's bidding review. MGM China (2282 HK) topped the scoresheets. 
As with all incumbents, Melco International (200 HK) and Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) eked out strong gains following the renewal. Melco's current discount to NAV is currently 20%.


Where Does Melco's Discount To NAV Go From Here?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 25th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 25th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning

Hong Kong

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

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Sands China (1928 HK)

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Big Win in 2022 and Let's See if It Can Sustain in 2023

"Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by 16.9pp in 2022. For 2023, we expect to switch into Country Garden, Sunny Optical, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Boss Zhipin (2076 HK | BZ US) HK Dual Primary Listing on 22 Dec - Index, Southbound, and SPECIAL

Kanzhun a.k.a. Boss Zhipin, the leading online recruitment platform in China, is listing in HK by way of Introduction. No offer. That means trading...

Travis Lundy

Where Does Melco's Discount To NAV Go From Here?

Melco has a tendency to overshoot to the upside, therefore I'd be inclined to go Long Melco here and Short MCLO here as more positive news unfolds....

David Blennerhassett

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position and highlight short interest changes in Ganfeng Lithium, Netease, Tencent, Li Ning.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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