Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!</li><li><p>Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to target</p></li><li><p>note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!</p></li></ul>

Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to targetnote how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global equity managers are positioned at their highest ever overweight in French equities</li>
<li>France is the 4th largest country allocation globally and the largest in the European Union. Versus the benchmark, only the Netherlands has more funds positioned overweight.</li>
<li>Sanofi and Cap Gemini SA have benefited from fund rotation this year, with the percentage of funds invested in each name rising by 4.1% and 3.3% respectively</li>
</ul>


Global equity managers are positioned at their highest ever overweight in French equities
France is the 4th largest country allocation globally and the largest in the European Union. Versus the benchmark, only the Netherlands has more funds positioned overweight.
Sanofi and Cap Gemini SA have benefited from fund rotation this year, with the percentage of funds invested in each name rising by 4.1% and 3.3% respectively


France: Europe’s High Conviction Holding

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>2021 saw a significant jump in RNA based trials. Large sequencing projects and the success of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines should drive the growth of the global RNA therapeutics market. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4864:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/incyte-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20576:1" rel="noopener">Incyte Corp (INCY US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isis-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7017:1" rel="noopener">Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS US)</a> lead in RNA therapy related innovations.</li>
<li>R&amp;D collaboration, licensing deals, strategic investments and buyouts between RNA specialists and big pharma will increase as sitting on the sidelines might no longer be an option.</li>
</ul>


2021 saw a significant jump in RNA based trials. Large sequencing projects and the success of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines should drive the growth of the global RNA therapeutics market. 
Our analysis suggests that Moderna Inc (MRNA US) , Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), Incyte Corp (INCY US), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS US) lead in RNA therapy related innovations.
R&amp;D collaboration, licensing deals, strategic investments and buyouts between RNA specialists and big pharma will increase as sitting on the sidelines might no longer be an option.


Data Mining Technical Publications to Rank the Innovators in RNA Therapeutics

France

Sanofi operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. Sanofi also develops cardiovascular, thrombosis, metabolic disorder, central nervous system, and oncology medicines and drugs. Sanofi serves customers worldwide.

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Sanofi (SAN FP)

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Equity Research

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

France: Europe’s High Conviction Holding

Global equity funds are at record overweights in French equities. Average weights are towards the top end of the 8-year range at 4.16%, pushing net...

Steven Holden

Data Mining Technical Publications to Rank the Innovators in RNA Therapeutics

Specialists lead the RNA intellectual property ecosystem but may still need big pharma to bring new treatments to market making the space ripe for...

Pyari Menon

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