Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Santacruz Silver Mining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Santacruz reported 2025 revenue of $326.4M (+15% YoY) and 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $104.6M (+99% YoY), driven by a 36% increase in average realized prices.</li>
<li>Q4 cash costs and AISC came in at $36.92/oz and 46.42/oz, which included higher ore purchase costs at San Lucas, and lower ounces sold from the Bolivar flooding.</li>
<li>SCZ enters 2026 with $66.7M in cash and is well-positioned to benefit from Bolivar’s recovery and strengthened margins.</li>
</ul>


Santacruz reported 2025 revenue of $326.4M (+15% YoY) and 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $104.6M (+99% YoY), driven by a 36% increase in average realized prices.
Q4 cash costs and AISC came in at $36.92/oz and 46.42/oz, which included higher ore purchase costs at San Lucas, and lower ounces sold from the Bolivar flooding.
SCZ enters 2026 with $66.7M in cash and is well-positioned to benefit from Bolivar’s recovery and strengthened margins.


SCZ: Strengthened Margins; Cost Optimizations Ongoing

<ul>
<li>Santacruz reported Q4/25 production of 3.74Moz AgEq, up 9% QoQ and beating our 3.48Moz by 7%, driven by strong recovery at the Bolivar Mine.</li>
<li>Bolivar production of 565.7Koz increased 34% QoQ from 420.6Koz as recovery plans continue to progress.</li>
<li>Q4 production also included strong quarters from Caballo Blanco, San Lucas, and Zimapán, beating our estimates by 10%, 10%, and 14%, and demonstrating the strength of SCZ’s multi-asset portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Santacruz reported Q4/25 production of 3.74Moz AgEq, up 9% QoQ and beating our 3.48Moz by 7%, driven by strong recovery at the Bolivar Mine.
Bolivar production of 565.7Koz increased 34% QoQ from 420.6Koz as recovery plans continue to progress.
Q4 production also included strong quarters from Caballo Blanco, San Lucas, and Zimapán, beating our estimates by 10%, 10%, and 14%, and demonstrating the strength of SCZ’s multi-asset portfolio.


SCZ: Q4 Production Highlights Strong QoQ Improvement

<ul>
<li>Santacruz reported Q3 revenue of $80.0M (+2% YoY) vs. our estimate of $78.8M, representing 2% growth YoY.</li>
<li>Cash costs and AISC came in above our expectations due to higher ore purchasing costs for San Lucas, flooding at Bolivar, and plant improvements at Zimapan.</li>
<li>We believe these are all transitional.</li>
</ul>


Santacruz reported Q3 revenue of $80.0M (+2% YoY) vs. our estimate of $78.8M, representing 2% growth YoY.
Cash costs and AISC came in above our expectations due to higher ore purchasing costs for San Lucas, flooding at Bolivar, and plant improvements at Zimapan.
We believe these are all transitional.


SCZ: Soft Q3 Financials; Still Too Cheap Relative to Cashflow

<ul>
<li>Santacruz reported its Q3/25 production results, missing our expectations mostly due to continued flooding at Bolivar.</li>
<li>AgEq production came in at 3.4Moz compared to our estimate of 3.9Moz, representing -3% QoQ and -15% YoY.</li>
<li>While the quarter was weak from a production standpoint, SCZ is still poised to generate large cashflow due to significant increase in the silver price (rising from $34/oz in July to $47/oz at the end of Q3).</li>
</ul>


Santacruz reported its Q3/25 production results, missing our expectations mostly due to continued flooding at Bolivar.
AgEq production came in at 3.4Moz compared to our estimate of 3.9Moz, representing -3% QoQ and -15% YoY.
While the quarter was weak from a production standpoint, SCZ is still poised to generate large cashflow due to significant increase in the silver price (rising from $34/oz in July to $47/oz at the end of Q3).


SCZ: Soft Q3 Production Due to Flooding at Bolivar

<ul><li>Quarterly Coverage Update Q3/26 marked a return to outperformance for our coverage universe.</li><li>Our covered companies rose 7.1% on average during the quarter, ahead of the S&P 500 (+2.2%), the TSX (+1.1%), and the TSXV, which declined 1.6%, generating ~6% of alpha over our benchmark (the TSX).</li><li>Our coverage universe has now outperformed its benchmark in seven of the nine quarters since we began tracking it (see Figure 1 below).</li></ul>

Quarterly Coverage Update Q3/26 marked a return to outperformance for our coverage universe.Our covered companies rose 7.1% on average during the quarter, ahead of the S&P 500 (+2.2%), the TSX (+1.1%), and the TSXV, which declined 1.6%, generating ~6% of alpha over our benchmark (the TSX).Our coverage universe has now outperformed its benchmark in seven of the nine quarters since we began tracking it (see Figure 1 below).

Mayfair Gold Corp - Q3/26 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Canada

Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. explores and mines for silver ores. The Company develops, operates and discovers silver mining assets throughout Mexico.

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Santacruz Silver Mining (SCZ CN)

SCZ: Strengthened Margins; Cost Optimizations Ongoing

Santacruz reported 2025 revenue of $326.4M (+15% YoY) and 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $104.6M (+99% YoY), driven by a 36% increase in average realized...

Atrium Research

SCZ: Q4 Production Highlights Strong QoQ Improvement

Santacruz reported Q4/25 production of 3.74Moz AgEq, up 9% QoQ and beating our 3.48Moz by 7%, driven by strong recovery at the Bolivar Mine.

Atrium Research

SCZ: Soft Q3 Financials; Still Too Cheap Relative to Cashflow

Cash costs and AISC came in above our expectations due to higher ore purchasing costs for San Lucas, flooding at Bolivar, and plant improvements at...

Atrium Research

SCZ: Soft Q3 Production Due to Flooding at Bolivar

Santacruz reported its Q3/25 production results, missing our expectations mostly due to continued flooding at Bolivar. AgEq production came in at...

Atrium Research

Mayfair Gold Corp - Q3/26 Recap: All Our Research in One Place!

Quarterly Coverage Update Q3/26 marked a return to outperformance for our coverage universe. Our covered companies rose 7.1% on average during the...

Atrium Research

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