Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For July 2025, just six new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was 45%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%</li>
</ul>


For July 2025, just six new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was 45%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%


(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2025 Wrap: Pacific Industrial, Johns Lyon, TalkMed, DD Group, Hanil Cement

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener">MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US)</a>, a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmony-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25115:1" rel="noopener">Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)</a>.</li>
<li>Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date. </li>
<li>
A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair &amp; reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date. 

A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair &amp; reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.


MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony's Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.</li>
<li>The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.</li>
<li>We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.


S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">Mixi (2121 JP)</a>'s A$1.20/share cash Offer is now open, with a 50.1% acceptance condition. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a> is supportive. Mixi currently holds 25.15%. ~16% of shares out have tendered.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/Betr-entertainment-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41181:1" rel="noopener">Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)</a> (self-alleged superior) scrip Offer, with no minimum acceptance condition, is still out there. betr holds 19.6%. No shareholder has accepted terms. </li>
<li>PBH has now tapped the Takeover Panel seeking orders betr clarify its convoluted Offer.</li>
</ul>



Mixi (2121 JP)'s A$1.20/share cash Offer is now open, with a 50.1% acceptance condition. PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) is supportive. Mixi currently holds 25.15%. ~16% of shares out have tendered.

Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) (self-alleged superior) scrip Offer, with no minimum acceptance condition, is still out there. betr holds 19.6%. No shareholder has accepted terms. 
PBH has now tapped the Takeover Panel seeking orders betr clarify its convoluted Offer.


PointsBet (PBH AU): Either Betr Pulls A Rabbit Out Of The Hat, Or Walks

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th April 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainsworth-game-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:957:1" rel="noopener">Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU)</a>, an Aussie gaming supplier, entered into a Scheme with Austria's Novomatic, Ainsworth's largest shareholder (52.9%). </li>
<li>Novomatic offered A$1.00/share (best &amp; final) - including a permitted dividend - a 35% premium to last close; yet 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable. They are probably tight. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th April 2025, Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, entered into a Scheme with Austria's Novomatic, Ainsworth's largest shareholder (52.9%). 
Novomatic offered A$1.00/share (best &amp; final) - including a permitted dividend - a 35% premium to last close; yet 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.

The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable. They are probably tight. 


Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): 29th August Vote On Novomatic's "Low-Balled Offer"

Australia

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

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Santos Ltd (STO AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2025 Wrap: Pacific Industrial, Johns Lyon, TalkMed, DD Group, Hanil Cement

For the month of July, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony's Offer

Both legs have the same gross/annual. spreads of 1.5%/7.9%, assuming early Oct payment. There will be nominal costs to be netted off the CDI...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

The market consultation ends in 2 weeks, and the conclusions should be announced soon after that. A lot of the stocks have moved significantly over...

Brian Freitas

PointsBet (PBH AU): Either Betr Pulls A Rabbit Out Of The Hat, Or Walks

I can see Mixi waiving the acceptance condition and declaring term unconditional. Trading at terms. If in, sell here. If not in, avoid unless...

David Blennerhassett

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): 29th August Vote On Novomatic's "Low-Balled Offer"

I think this gets up. And that's a chunky franked dividend with respect to the Offer price. For those who can take advantage. Key shareholders have...

David Blennerhassett

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