Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ServiceTitan, a founder-led market leader for trades businesses in the United States and Canada, is expected to IPO this week.</li>
<li>The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $52.00 to $57.00, implying a market cap of roughly $5B at the midpoint.  </li>
<li>I have a positive view of upcoming ServiceTitan IPO and expect an attractive first trading-day return. The stock will begin trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday.  </li>
</ul>


ServiceTitan, a founder-led market leader for trades businesses in the United States and Canada, is expected to IPO this week.
The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $52.00 to $57.00, implying a market cap of roughly $5B at the midpoint.  
I have a positive view of upcoming ServiceTitan IPO and expect an attractive first trading-day return. The stock will begin trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday.  


ServiceTitan Valuation Analysis: Attractive First-Day Return, Initial Price Range: $52.00-$57.00

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cap-gemini-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21411:1" rel="noopener">Cap Gemini SA (CAP FP)</a> is estimated to be excluded from the selection list in the long-run due to being pushed way above 60% coverage in the Technology sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merck-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21676:1" rel="noopener">Merck KGaA (MRK GR)</a> switches between in and out of the selection list because it fluctuates close to the 60% coverage of the Health Care sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nokia-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21754:1" rel="noopener">Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH)</a> has a higher probability of deletion from SX5E if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merck-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21676:1" rel="noopener">Merck KGaA (MRK GR)</a>  qualifies to the selection list. Forecasted passive fund supply is  ~15 ADV.   </li>
</ul>



Cap Gemini SA (CAP FP) is estimated to be excluded from the selection list in the long-run due to being pushed way above 60% coverage in the Technology sector.

Merck KGaA (MRK GR) switches between in and out of the selection list because it fluctuates close to the 60% coverage of the Health Care sector.

Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH) has a higher probability of deletion from SX5E if Merck KGaA (MRK GR)  qualifies to the selection list. Forecasted passive fund supply is  ~15 ADV.   


United States

SAP SE is a multinational software company.  The Company develops business software, including e-business and enterprise management software, consults on organizational usage of its applications software, and provides training services.  SAP markets its products and services worldwide.

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Sap Se Sponsored Adr (SAP US)

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

ServiceTitan Valuation Analysis: Attractive First-Day Return, Initial Price Range: $52.00-$57.00

ServiceTitan will go public this week in the United States. In my insight, I discuss valuation analysis and set a 2025e price target for ServiceTitan.

Andrei Zakharov

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

EURO STOXX 50: Exclusion by Sector

Merck KGaA's fluctuating ranking in the Health Care sector impacts the probability of Nokia's deletion from EURO STOXX 50 which can cause a passive...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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