Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We cut 2025–27E core profit by an average of 8% per year, reflecting lower margins and higher operating expenses from increased marketing, wider distribution, and new product launches to support domestic and overseas sales.</li><li>Sales recovery—especially abroad—remains challenging amid weak economic conditions and intense beverage market competition.</li><li>SAPPE targets 15% sales growth in 2026, with domestic sales rising slightly below 15% and overseas sales above 15%, supported by low bases in the US and Middle East.</li></ul>

We cut 2025–27E core profit by an average of 8% per year, reflecting lower margins and higher operating expenses from increased marketing, wider distribution, and new product launches to support domestic and overseas sales.Sales recovery—especially abroad—remains challenging amid weak economic conditions and intense beverage market competition.SAPPE targets 15% sales growth in 2026, with domestic sales rising slightly below 15% and overseas sales above 15%, supported by low bases in the US and Middle East.

SAPPE Plc. (SAPPE): Earnings Cut For 2025–27E / Limited Near-Term Appeal

<ul><li>2Q25 profit fell YoY but recovered QoQ, in line with the sales trend — particularly overseas sales (accounting for 71% of total sales), which declined YoY but improved QoQ.</li><li>The valuation metrics reflect a revised view to neutral on the current fundamentals (previously overvalued), while the tactical view has been lowered to very limited upside risk (previously limited upside risk).</li><li>The new fair value estimate is Bt37.50, based on a required return of 8.5%, reflecting updated macro assumptions of Rf 1.45% and MRP 5.26% (previously Bt32.00, 9.8%, 1.48%, and 6.83%).</li></ul>

2Q25 profit fell YoY but recovered QoQ, in line with the sales trend — particularly overseas sales (accounting for 71% of total sales), which declined YoY but improved QoQ.The valuation metrics reflect a revised view to neutral on the current fundamentals (previously overvalued), while the tactical view has been lowered to very limited upside risk (previously limited upside risk).The new fair value estimate is Bt37.50, based on a required return of 8.5%, reflecting updated macro assumptions of Rf 1.45% and MRP 5.26% (previously Bt32.00, 9.8%, 1.48%, and 6.83%).

SAPPE Plc. (SAPPE): 2Q25 Earnings Declined YoY But Increased QoQ...

<ul><li>2Q25E net profit is expected to have declined YoY but recovered QoQ, in line with sales momentum — particularly international sales, which account for 65% of total revenue.</li><li>While export sales are projected to have fallen YoY, they have shown signs of a recovery QoQ.</li><li>However, the GPM is expected to have declined both YoY and QoQ, pressured by the stronger baht.</li></ul>

2Q25E net profit is expected to have declined YoY but recovered QoQ, in line with sales momentum — particularly international sales, which account for 65% of total revenue.While export sales are projected to have fallen YoY, they have shown signs of a recovery QoQ.However, the GPM is expected to have declined both YoY and QoQ, pressured by the stronger baht.

Sappe - 2Q25E Earnings to Have Fallen YoY but Increased QoQ; Momentum to Continue in 3Q25E

<ul><li>The company is in a net cash position, holding Bt1.67bn in cash and short-term investments. The buyback budget accounts for 15% of this amount.</li><li>Based on the latest share price or our estimated fair value of Bt34, the actual amount spent on the buyback is expected to be below Bt250mn.</li><li>The share buyback should help support the per-share performance metrics — namely earnings per share (EPS), dividend per share (DPS), and return on equity (ROE) — during a period when the business is under pressure from weak consumer spending and sluggish global economic conditions. </li></ul>

The company is in a net cash position, holding Bt1.67bn in cash and short-term investments. The buyback budget accounts for 15% of this amount.Based on the latest share price or our estimated fair value of Bt34, the actual amount spent on the buyback is expected to be below Bt250mn.The share buyback should help support the per-share performance metrics — namely earnings per share (EPS), dividend per share (DPS), and return on equity (ROE) — during a period when the business is under pressure from weak consumer spending and sluggish global economic conditions. 

SAPPE Plc. - Announcement of a Share Buyback of up to 5mn Shares...

<ul><li>Due to increasing negative factors in international markets and a sharp decline in overseas sales in 1Q25, the company has revised down its sales target for this year to a decrease of 10 20% (previously projected growth of 5%) and now expects the gross profit margin to decline by 1- 2% from the 2024 levels (previously expected to remain flat).</li><li>We have revised down our core profit forecasts for 2025- 27E by an average of 23% per year, reflecting lower sales and margins based on a reduced 2025 sales target.</li><li>The valuation metrics now reflect a downgraded assessment of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from buy), along with a neutral tactical stance (previously very limited downside risk).</li></ul>

Due to increasing negative factors in international markets and a sharp decline in overseas sales in 1Q25, the company has revised down its sales target for this year to a decrease of 10 20% (previously projected growth of 5%) and now expects the gross profit margin to decline by 1- 2% from the 2024 levels (previously expected to remain flat).We have revised down our core profit forecasts for 2025- 27E by an average of 23% per year, reflecting lower sales and margins based on a reduced 2025 sales target.The valuation metrics now reflect a downgraded assessment of the current fundamentals to undervalued (from buy), along with a neutral tactical stance (previously very limited downside risk).

Sappe - Lowered Sales Target to –10%-20%; Earnings Forecasts Revised Down

Thailand

Sappe Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes health drinks. The Company manufactures dietary and fruit juice drinks. Sappe distributes their products internationally.

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Sappe Pcl (SAPPE TB)

SAPPE Plc. (SAPPE): Earnings Cut For 2025–27E / Limited Near-Term Appeal

SAPPE targets 15% sales growth in 2026, with domestic sales rising slightly below 15% and overseas sales above 15%, supported by low bases in the...

Krungthai XSpring

SAPPE Plc. (SAPPE): 2Q25 Earnings Declined YoY But Increased QoQ...

2Q25 profit fell YoY but recovered QoQ, in line with the sales trend — particularly overseas sales (accounting for 71% of total sales), which...

Krungthai XSpring

Sappe - 2Q25E Earnings to Have Fallen YoY but Increased QoQ; Momentum to Continue in 3Q25E

2Q25E net profit is expected to have declined YoY but recovered QoQ, in line with sales momentum — particularly international sales, which account...

Krungthai XSpring

Sappe - Lowered Sales Target to –10%-20%; Earnings Forecasts Revised Down

We have revised down our core profit forecasts for 2025- 27E by an average of 23% per year, reflecting lower sales and margins based on a reduced...

Krungthai XSpring

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