Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.</li>
<li>Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.</li>
<li>Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.</li>
</ul>


We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.


Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Budweiser Brewing  APAC  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong secular bull market has consolidated within its long-term support/resistance range of 22700 and 24000.  With increasing momentum and strength the market is poised for the next leg up.</li>
<li>Hong Kong tech and consumer discretionary sectors continue to have strong momentum with healthcare and materials sectors showing renewed strength.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> shares bounce with the appointment of new CEO, pointing to increasing China revenue.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> reported strong earnings and increased its dividend.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong secular bull market has consolidated within its long-term support/resistance range of 22700 and 24000.  With increasing momentum and strength the market is poised for the next leg up.
Hong Kong tech and consumer discretionary sectors continue to have strong momentum with healthcare and materials sectors showing renewed strength.

Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) shares bounce with the appointment of new CEO, pointing to increasing China revenue.  Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) reported strong earnings and increased its dividend.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (March 11)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the second time in 3 weeks, 3D Investment Partners has launched, unannounced, a Partial Tender Offer for pure investment purposes, for a 10-15% stake in a REIT.</li>
<li>Last time it was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-ud-reit-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19428:1" rel="noopener">NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP)</a>. This time it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12654:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The trade last time was to sell NTT UD on the pop and replace with peers. That has worked. The trade is probably the same here. </li>
</ul>


For the second time in 3 weeks, 3D Investment Partners has launched, unannounced, a Partial Tender Offer for pure investment purposes, for a 10-15% stake in a REIT.
Last time it was NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP). This time it is Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). 
The trade last time was to sell NTT UD on the pop and replace with peers. That has worked. The trade is probably the same here. 


3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-ud-reit-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19428:1" rel="noopener">NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for "pure investment purposes."</li>
<li>"Shareholder" structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But...</li>
</ul>


Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP). 
3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for "pure investment purposes."
"Shareholder" structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But...


3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Power/Analog names set for a weak start after the negative read-through from Texas Industries numbers Friday.</li>
<li>Disco numbers looks overly conservative and a good chace to revisit with 'Stargate' gains erased after Fridays drop.</li>
<li>Sapporo Holdings quelling concerns its main activist investor was divesting should be enough to see this rebound.</li>
</ul>


Power/Analog names set for a weak start after the negative read-through from Texas Industries numbers Friday.
Disco numbers looks overly conservative and a good chace to revisit with 'Stargate' gains erased after Fridays drop.
Sapporo Holdings quelling concerns its main activist investor was divesting should be enough to see this rebound.


Japan Morning Connection: JP Tech Set for a Soggy Start to the Week Despite Big META Capex Plans

Japan

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

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Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (March 11)

HK is consolidating within its long term support/resistance levels of 22700 and 24000. Mainland buying is at historically high levels. Bud APAC...

David Mudd

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

3D Investment Partners has launched a second partial tender offer to buy a 10-15% stake in a J-REIT. Also "meh" in price terms. It's a good long...

Travis Lundy

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

Today, Singapore-based Japan activist 3D Investment Partners announced a partial tender offer for pure investment purposes. They will get to 10-15%...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: JP Tech Set for a Soggy Start to the Week Despite Big META Capex Plans

Power/analog expected to start weak due to negative read-through from Texas Industries. Good chance to revisit Disco. Sapporo Holdings may rebound...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

​We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (March 11)

HK is consolidating within its long term support/resistance levels of 22700 and 24000. Mainland buying is at historically high levels. Bud APAC...

David Mudd

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

3D Investment Partners has launched a second partial tender offer to buy a 10-15% stake in a J-REIT. Also "meh" in price terms. It's a good long...

Travis Lundy

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

Today, Singapore-based Japan activist 3D Investment Partners announced a partial tender offer for pure investment purposes. They will get to 10-15%...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: JP Tech Set for a Soggy Start to the Week Despite Big META Capex Plans

Power/analog expected to start weak due to negative read-through from Texas Industries. Good chance to revisit Disco. Sapporo Holdings may rebound...

Andrew Jackson

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...