Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

On 27 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/savaria-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25830:1" rel="noopener">Savaria Corp (SIS CN)</a> made an an offer to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/handicare-group-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31377:1" rel="noopener">Handicare Group AB (HANDI SS)</a> for SEK 50 per share, addressed to all shares outstanding.
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For an implied equity value of SEK 2,946.95 mn and an implied EV of SEK 3,311 mn.
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The offer represents 1.4x EV/Revenue, 9.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 22.5x P/Fwd E.
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The largest shareholder, Cidron Liberty Systems S.à r.l. (Nordic Capital), with a 62.9% stake, has informed Savaria that it intends to accept the offer. Although Savaria needs acceptances from a rather high 72.25% of the float, this should be achievable because a large majority of Handicare's shares belongs to institutional investors, which are highly likely to cash out in the coming weeks.
The price of the shares of Handicare has today (28 January) increased by 19.5% and closed at SEK 49.00, a gross spread of 2%, around 8% annualized.
Recommendation is LONG HANDI SS
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<li data-bind="visible: !isCollapsed(), html: content">Although the shares have been liquid today, patience may be needed to build a position.</li>
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On 27 January, Savaria Corp (SIS CN) made an an offer to acquire Handicare Group AB (HANDI SS) for SEK 50 per share, addressed to all shares outstanding.


For an implied equity value of SEK 2,946.95 mn and an implied EV of SEK 3,311 mn.


The offer represents 1.4x EV/Revenue, 9.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 22.5x P/Fwd E.


The largest shareholder, Cidron Liberty Systems S.à r.l. (Nordic Capital), with a 62.9% stake, has informed Savaria that it intends to accept the offer. Although Savaria needs acceptances from a rather high 72.25% of the float, this should be achievable because a large majority of Handicare's shares belongs to institutional investors, which are highly likely to cash out in the coming weeks.
The price of the shares of Handicare has today (28 January) increased by 19.5% and closed at SEK 49.00, a gross spread of 2%, around 8% annualized.
Recommendation is LONG HANDI SS

Although the shares have been liquid today, patience may be needed to build a position.


Canada

Savaria Corporation designs, manufactures, and distributes equipment that facilitates the mobility of people with special needs.  The Company's products include vertical lifts, inclined lifts, and stairlifts.  Savaria's products are sold in the United States and Canada through its dealer distribution network.

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Savaria Corp (SIS CN)

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index. In today’s report...

Vermilion Research

Handicare - Savaria: Recommended Offer

The largest shareholder (62.9%) intends to accept. Acceptances from 72.25% of the float should be achievable. Gross spread is 2% (annual. c. 8%)....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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