Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.</li>
</ul>


There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

<ul>
<li>There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).</li>
<li>Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.</li>
</ul>


There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorf-ketal-chemicals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44325:1" rel="noopener">Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN)</a> (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN) (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.
DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorf-ketal-chemicals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44325:1" rel="noopener">Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN)</a> (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Dorf-Ketal Chemicals Ltd (998552Z IN) (DKCI) is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO.
DKCI is an R&amp;D and innovation-focused global manufacturer and supplier of specialty chemicals, catering to hydrocarbons and industrial supply chains, and customers with diverse applications across various industrial segments.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO -The Positives - Strategic Blend of Organic & Inorganic Expansion

India

SBI Cards and Payment Services Private Limited provides credit card services. The Company offers payment products and services in the form of corporate and credit cards with incentive and rewards programs. SBI Cards and Payment Services serves customers in India.

SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

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SBI Cards & Payment Services (SBICARD IN)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

We forecast 20 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Elevated Borrowings and Tariff Uncertainty

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of...

Akshat Shah

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India Pre-IPO -The Positives - Strategic Blend of Organic & Inorganic Expansion

Dorf-Ketal Chemicals India is looking to raise about US$579m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Akshat Shah

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)