Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>An <a href="https://bunshun.jp/denshiban/articles/b10138" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> in Japanese weekly magazine <em>Bunshun </em>this morning sent shares in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> limit up +17% with a headline that NTT Docomo was interested to buy.</li>
<li>Without access to the article, I can't go deep, but the base concept is that NTT Docomo is "worried" about KDDI (which has a bank, as does Softbank Corp)</li>
<li>It is not clear how serious it is, SBI Sumishin is super-expensive, and buying a bank isn't the same as buying a company. Hmmm...</li>
</ul>


An article in Japanese weekly magazine Bunshun this morning sent shares inSBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) limit up +17% with a headline that NTT Docomo was interested to buy.
Without access to the article, I can't go deep, but the base concept is that NTT Docomo is "worried" about KDDI (which has a bank, as does Softbank Corp)
It is not clear how serious it is, SBI Sumishin is super-expensive, and buying a bank isn't the same as buying a company. Hmmm...


NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks</li>
<li>Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income</li>
<li>Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore</li>
</ul>


Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks
Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income
Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore


Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks.  </li>
<li>The company's cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs. </li>
<li>Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA. </li>
</ul>



Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks.  
The company's cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs. 
Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA. 


Japan Post Bank - It's like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

<ul>
<li>There are few, if any banks, in Japan that compare with Rakuten's 65% loan growth</li>
<li>The newly listed interbank stands out with exceptional ROE, not from leverage</li>
<li>Credit metrics remain strong, with NPL cover especially high vs peers</li>
</ul>


There are few, if any banks, in Japan that compare with Rakuten's 65% loan growth
The newly listed interbank stands out with exceptional ROE, not from leverage
Credit metrics remain strong, with NPL cover especially high vs peers


Rakuten Bank - In Japan With 65% Loan Growth

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2023 marked our eighth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia Pacific. In 2023, IPOs didn’t pick up much from the low base of 2022  while placements showed upward momentum.</li>
<li>We ended 2023 with an accuracy rate of 73.7% across 57 IPOs that we covered and 79.3% across 115 placements.</li>
<li>For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.</li>
</ul>


2023 marked our eighth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia Pacific. In 2023, IPOs didn’t pick up much from the low base of 2022  while placements showed upward momentum.
We ended 2023 with an accuracy rate of 73.7% across 57 IPOs that we covered and 79.3% across 115 placements.
For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.


Aequitas 2023 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - IPOs Forming a Low Base, Placements Pick Up

Japan

SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Ltd. offers general banking services. The Company provides transfer accounts, deposits, currency savings, mortgages, net loans, investment trusts, insurance products, and other banking services. SBI Sumishin Net Bank offers services to individuals and businesses.

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SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)

NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea

A news weekly magazine Bunshun today had an article suggesting a bank executive thought NTT Docomo was on its way to buying SBI Sumishin Netbank....

Travis Lundy

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

The BOJ finally raised short term rates today from 25bps to 50bps. This is an historic rate rise. Japan's banks can see better income from JGBs,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank - It's like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

Japan Post Bank is more than ever like a closed-end mutual fund, which is hardly seeing any line items drive profit upward other than stock sales,...

Daniel Tabbush

Rakuten Bank - In Japan With 65% Loan Growth

With corporate news of bank integration, see comments from Travis Lundy, it is worthwhile to understand Rakuten Bank's unique position, character,...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas 2023 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - IPOs Forming a Low Base, Placements Pick Up

2023 was our eight year of covering Asia ECM. We ended 2023 with an accuracy rate of 73.7% across 57 IPOs that we covered and 79.3% across 115...

Sumeet Singh

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