Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 31 August, I published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-5838-4-months-on-volume-decay-and-rb-s-place-among-banks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111882" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838) - 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB's Place Among Banks</a>. It's up 40.6% since the day after I wrote, reasons unclear.  </li>
<li>TOPIX Banks Index is up 10.4% since then, with post-BOJ meeting price movements indicating a kind of <em>momiai</em>.</li>
<li>For Rakuten Bank, while growth means it may not be "expensive" it is no longer dirt cheap. And I cannot identify the culprit, so time to take profits. </li>
</ul>


On 31 August, I published Rakuten Bank (5838) - 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB's Place Among Banks. It's up 40.6% since the day after I wrote, reasons unclear.  
TOPIX Banks Index is up 10.4% since then, with post-BOJ meeting price movements indicating a kind of momiai.
For Rakuten Bank, while growth means it may not be "expensive" it is no longer dirt cheap. And I cannot identify the culprit, so time to take profits. 


Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>What's new is that Japan's domestic credit growth is accelerating, and it's now better than in Singapore, for instance; accelerating to 2.51% YoY in July from 0.77% February low</li>
<li>Loan growth and higher JGB yields, both matter for net interest income, and margins. Two year JGB yields are 0.035% on 22 September compared with -0.075% on 30 June.</li>
<li>Profit delta can rise further for Japan's banks due to better NPLs, with the largest banks' credit costs/loans moving to 5bps in 1Q24, vs 21bps in 4Q22, 11bps in 1Q23</li>
</ul>


What's new is that Japan's domestic credit growth is accelerating, and it's now better than in Singapore, for instance; accelerating to 2.51% YoY in July from 0.77% February low
Loan growth and higher JGB yields, both matter for net interest income, and margins. Two year JGB yields are 0.035% on 22 September compared with -0.075% on 30 June.
Profit delta can rise further for Japan's banks due to better NPLs, with the largest banks' credit costs/loans moving to 5bps in 1Q24, vs 21bps in 4Q22, 11bps in 1Q23


Japan Banks - Accelerating Domestic Credit | JGB Yields Higher | Provisions -79% QoQ & -58% YoY

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Four months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> was IPOed too low, then the price went up. It would appear foreign active ownership is relatively high.</li>
<li>Rakuten Bank stands out with high ROE and earnings growth. Banks stand out because, well, they're going up. </li>
<li>Given expected 5yr earnings growth, Rakuten Bank at current price is probably "wrong." But it has much less "bankness" than most banks, so you have to think about it differently.</li>
</ul>


Four months ago, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) was IPOed too low, then the price went up. It would appear foreign active ownership is relatively high.
Rakuten Bank stands out with high ROE and earnings growth. Banks stand out because, well, they're going up. 
Given expected 5yr earnings growth, Rakuten Bank at current price is probably "wrong." But it has much less "bankness" than most banks, so you have to think about it differently.


Rakuten Bank (5838) - 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB's Place Among Banks

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Rakuten Bank is a clear beneficiary of the steepening yield curve in Japan, with its low LDR and healthy capital ratio</li>
<li>Rakuten Bank’s LTM PE multiple of 11.4x, LTM PBV ratio of 1.5x and ROE of 13.8% makes it the best ROE to PBV ratio bank among its digital peers</li>
<li>Rakuten Bank is also the lowest cost to serve Japanese digital bank; it is narrowing the PBV ratio discount gap with SBI Sumishin</li>
</ul>


Rakuten Bank is a clear beneficiary of the steepening yield curve in Japan, with its low LDR and healthy capital ratio
Rakuten Bank’s LTM PE multiple of 11.4x, LTM PBV ratio of 1.5x and ROE of 13.8% makes it the best ROE to PBV ratio bank among its digital peers
Rakuten Bank is also the lowest cost to serve Japanese digital bank; it is narrowing the PBV ratio discount gap with SBI Sumishin


Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – At a Valuation Inflection Point

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> was listed on 12th Oct 2022, when it raised US$457m in its upsized Japan IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 9th Apr 2023.</li>
<li>Socionext is a fabless semiconductor provider which commenced operations after integrating the system on a chip (SoC) businesses of Fujitsu Semiconductor Limited and Panasonic Holding Corporation in 2015.</li>
<li>Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the Development Bank of Japan, Fujitsu and Panasonic, the trio had each trimmed their respective stakes in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Socionext (6526 JP) was listed on 12th Oct 2022, when it raised US$457m in its upsized Japan IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 9th Apr 2023.
Socionext is a fabless semiconductor provider which commenced operations after integrating the system on a chip (SoC) businesses of Fujitsu Semiconductor Limited and Panasonic Holding Corporation in 2015.
Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the Development Bank of Japan, Fujitsu and Panasonic, the trio had each trimmed their respective stakes in the IPO.


Socionext Lock-Up - Up 2.67x Since IPO. US$930m Worth of Shares to Be Unlocked

Japan

SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Ltd. offers general banking services. The Company provides transfer accounts, deposits, currency savings, mortgages, net loans, investment trusts, insurance products, and other banking services. SBI Sumishin Net Bank offers services to individuals and businesses.

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SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)

Rakuten Bank (5838) One Month Later

Rakuten Bank (5838) - 4wks ago it was cheap to peers. Now it is expensive to peers after outperforming 30% in 3wks. Time to take profits. Not a...

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Japan Banks - Accelerating Domestic Credit | JGB Yields Higher | Provisions -79% QoQ & -58% YoY

Japan's banks are seeing accelerating domestic credit growth, better than Singapore now. JGB yields remain higher than in the past, credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

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Since the day after Rakuten Bank's IPO, the Banks Index is +25%, and Rakuten Bank's guided growth to March 2024 is well above TPNBNK average. But...

Travis Lundy

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – At a Valuation Inflection Point

Rakuten Bank benefits from yield curve steepening in Japan, with its low LDR and healthy capital ratio; it is the lowest cost to serve Japanese...

Victor Galliano

Socionext Lock-Up - Up 2.67x Since IPO. US$930m Worth of Shares to Be Unlocked

Socionext just launched a US$2bn secondary extended offering, with the Development Bank of Japan, Fujitsu, and Panasonic looking to selldown their...

Clarence Chu

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