Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New leadership with expertise in Australia could lead to value unlocking for Australian assets. </li>
<li>Q3 22 ridership has gone up to 85% and 83% of pre-COVID level for NEL and DTL while in Q3 21 was only 49% for NEL and 43% for DTL.</li>
<li>The reopening has brought tourists back and increased ridership level while China's reopening has just started and is not yet priced in. </li>
</ul>


New leadership with expertise in Australia could lead to value unlocking for Australian assets. 
Q3 22 ridership has gone up to 85% and 83% of pre-COVID level for NEL and DTL while in Q3 21 was only 49% for NEL and 43% for DTL.
The reopening has brought tourists back and increased ridership level while China's reopening has just started and is not yet priced in. 


<ul>
<li>Southeast Asia has started to reopen amid increasing Omicron cases including Malaysia and Vietnam.</li>
<li>Singapore has extended its F1 contracts for the next 7 years and there will be an F1 night race this year in Singapore, boosting the likelihood of reopening. </li>
<li>More than 80% of its buses are Euro 5 compliant, creating a case for green transportation. </li>
</ul>


Southeast Asia has started to reopen amid increasing Omicron cases including Malaysia and Vietnam.
Singapore has extended its F1 contracts for the next 7 years and there will be an F1 night race this year in Singapore, boosting the likelihood of reopening. 
More than 80% of its buses are Euro 5 compliant, creating a case for green transportation. 


Far East Hospitality Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/far-east-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19061:1" rel="noopener">Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP)</a>provides the stability that investors need from the substantial portion of the fixed revenue in the slow recovery in the hospitality industry. The company also benefit from getting the government contract to facilitate the SHN and hosts the Malaysian worker of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a> . 
Among all the hotel assets, 3 of the hotels in the Orchard area will be the first ones to recover their occupancy rate and the room rate which will translate into a higher RevPar. 
Thanks to the skew in high PER from Ascott Residence Trust, FEHT is trading at a 51% discount to the peers while in PBR, FEHT is trading at a 37.5% discount to the peers. Excluding Ascott Residence Trust, FEHT is trading at a 7% premium to the peers and a 41% discount to the peers. FEHT is also trading below its book value currently. BUY.

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP)provides the stability that investors need from the substantial portion of the fixed revenue in the slow recovery in the hospitality industry. The company also benefit from getting the government contract to facilitate the SHN and hosts the Malaysian worker of Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP) . 
Among all the hotel assets, 3 of the hotels in the Orchard area will be the first ones to recover their occupancy rate and the room rate which will translate into a higher RevPar. 
Thanks to the skew in high PER from Ascott Residence Trust, FEHT is trading at a 51% discount to the peers while in PBR, FEHT is trading at a 37.5% discount to the peers. Excluding Ascott Residence Trust, FEHT is trading at a 7% premium to the peers and a 41% discount to the peers. FEHT is also trading below its book value currently. BUY. 

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Stable in Slow Recovery

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

ComfortDelgro (CD) has been under a slew of negative news - from potential losses of taxi drivers to failing to win the bid to operate the Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL) last few weeks. Since my note in July: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/comfortdelgro-too-early-to-bottom-fish-as-ride-hailing-apps-continue-to-incentivize-and-innovate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12141">ComfortDelgro: Too Early to Bottom-Fish as Ride-Hailing Apps Continue to Incentivize and Innovate</a>, the company's share price has fallen by another 12%. Year-to-date, the fall in share price has been ~20%.While this is not a call for a structural U-turn on the company's share price, there are some positives that could lift the transport giant's share price. Given that its share price has fallen to the bottom of its five-year forward PE band, it is worth exploring four positive scenarios that could emerge to lift the share price of CD near-term.

ComfortDelgro (CD) has been under a slew of negative news - from potential losses of taxi drivers to failing to win the bid to operate the Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL) last few weeks. Since my note in July: ComfortDelgro: Too Early to Bottom-Fish as Ride-Hailing Apps Continue to Incentivize and Innovate, the company's share price has fallen by another 12%. Year-to-date, the fall in share price has been ~20%.While this is not a call for a structural U-turn on the company's share price, there are some positives that could lift the transport giant's share price. Given that its share price has fallen to the bottom of its five-year forward PE band, it is worth exploring four positive scenarios that could emerge to lift the share price of CD near-term.

ComfortDelgro: Negatives Mostly Priced-In; Time to Look at Some Near-Term Positives

The taxi situation<ul>
<li>On Friday, local news media Today reported that over 2,000 ComfortDelgro taxi hirers are keen to join rival taxi operators partnering with Grab after the private-hire company offered rental rebates to entice them to switch over (Source: <a href="http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/over-2000-comfortdelgro-cabbies-express-interest-joining-grab" target="_blank">Today</a>).</li>
<li>The move is not totally unexpected, given that there are now more idle cars for Grab to take advantage of as compared to the past. Uber has supposedly 'given up' on 3,000 to 4,000 cars (Source: <a href="http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/possible-deluge-of-used-cars-ahead-but-impact-uncertain" target="_blank">Business Times</a>) as they probably…</li>
</ul>

The taxi situation
On Friday, local news media Today reported that over 2,000 ComfortDelgro taxi hirers are keen to join rival taxi operators partnering with Grab after the private-hire company offered rental rebates to entice them to switch over (Source: Today).
The move is not totally unexpected, given that there are now more idle cars for Grab to take advantage of as compared to the past. Uber has supposedly 'given up' on 3,000 to 4,000 cars (Source: Business Times) as they probably…


ComfortDelgro's Drivers' Update and SBS' Failure to Win New Train Line Signal Share Price Pressures

Singapore

SBS Transit is a leading multi-modal public transport operator in Singapore, providing extensive bus and rail services. Its offerings include various bus services, the North East MRT Line, Downtown MRT Line, and the Sengkang and Punggol Light Rail Transit systems. The company is headquartered in Singapore and was founded in 1973 as Singapore Bus Services.

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SBS Transit (SBUS SP)

Comfortdelgro (CD): Now or Never

The share price is lagging behind peers while operating numbers gradually improving. Reopening leads to an increase in ridership, China's reopening...

Henry Soediarko

Comfortdelgro (CD): Reopening and Green

reopening play while the share price is still lagging behind the pre-COVID level and as a green transport name for Comfortdelgro.

Henry Soediarko

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Stable in Slow Recovery

Among all the hotel assets, 3 of the FEHT hotels in the Orchard area will be the first ones to recover their occupancy rate and the room rate which...

Henry Soediarko

ComfortDelgro: Negatives Mostly Priced-In; Time to Look at Some Near-Term Positives

ComfortDelgro (CD) has been under a slew of negative news - from potential losses of taxi drivers to failing to win the bid to operate the...

Valerie Law, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Comfortdelgro (CD): Now or Never

The share price is lagging behind peers while operating numbers gradually improving. Reopening leads to an increase in ridership, China's reopening...

Henry Soediarko

Comfortdelgro (CD): Reopening and Green

reopening play while the share price is still lagging behind the pre-COVID level and as a green transport name for Comfortdelgro.

Henry Soediarko

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Stable in Slow Recovery

Among all the hotel assets, 3 of the FEHT hotels in the Orchard area will be the first ones to recover their occupancy rate and the room rate which...

Henry Soediarko

ComfortDelgro: Negatives Mostly Priced-In; Time to Look at Some Near-Term Positives

ComfortDelgro (CD) has been under a slew of negative news - from potential losses of taxi drivers to failing to win the bid to operate the...

Valerie Law, CFA

ComfortDelgro's Drivers' Update and SBS' Failure to Win New Train Line Signal Share Price Pressures

The taxi situation On Friday, local news media Today reported that over 2,000 ComfortDelgro taxi hirers are keen to join rival taxi operators...

Valerie Law, CFA