IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Sumishin Net Bank  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> has introduced a price range of JPY1,200-1,260 per share in the wake of a sell-off in bank shares. Offer shares and timelines are unchanged.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:96979" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97161" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. The shares will be listed on 29 March.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the new IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) has introduced a price range of JPY1,200-1,260 per share in the wake of a sell-off in bank shares. Offer shares and timelines are unchanged.
We previously discussed the IPO in SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case and SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights. The shares will be listed on 29 March.
Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the new IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.


SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: An IPO Price Range in the Wake of the Bank Share Sell-Off

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a>, an online bank in Japan, has revived its listing plans to raise up to US$440 million (vs the 2022 target of US$1 billion).</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:96979" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case</a>. The shares will be listed on 29 March.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), an online bank in Japan, has revived its listing plans to raise up to US$440 million (vs the 2022 target of US$1 billion).
We previously discussed the IPO in SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 29 March.
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We would participate in the IPO.


SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF has solid risk attribution, especially pertaining to downside risk.</li>
<li>The fund neglects idiosyncratic risks, its constituents are high-quality assets with few event-driven risks.</li>
<li>The fund's quality overlay significantly reduces momentum crash risk, according to the report.</li>
</ul>


The Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF has solid risk attribution, especially pertaining to downside risk.
The fund neglects idiosyncratic risks, its constituents are high-quality assets with few event-driven risks.
The fund's quality overlay significantly reduces momentum crash risk, according to the report.


JOET: Preventing Momentum Crash Risk With Quality Overlay

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Robinhood Markets  / Equity Capital Markets

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Our base case valuation of Robinhood is implied market cap of US$25.1 billion or US$29.8 per share, which is 25% lower than the mid-point of the IPO price range (US$40). Given the downside risk, we would AVOID this IPO. 
<ul><li>Our valuation of Robinhood is based on an EV/S multiple of 10.7x using our estimated sales of US$2.1 billion in 2022. <ul>
<li>The EV/S multiple of 10.7x is based on the average multiple of the comps in 2022.</li>
<li>The valuation multiple is higher than the those of online brokers Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers Group.</li>
<li>However, it is lower than the valuation multiples of the fintech comps including Coinbase and Affirm.</li>
</ul>
</li></ul>
</div>


Our base case valuation of Robinhood is implied market cap of US$25.1 billion or US$29.8 per share, which is 25% lower than the mid-point of the IPO price range (US$40). Given the downside risk, we would AVOID this IPO. 
Our valuation of Robinhood is based on an EV/S multiple of 10.7x using our estimated sales of US$2.1 billion in 2022. 
The EV/S multiple of 10.7x is based on the average multiple of the comps in 2022.
The valuation multiple is higher than the those of online brokers Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers Group.
However, it is lower than the valuation multiples of the fintech comps including Coinbase and Affirm.




Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

Sheerly looking at Robinhood’s recent financial performance, one might conclude it has embarked on an impressive growth journey and could be a recent success story of Silicon Valley.The payment for order flow generates the majority of its revenue as it sells the clients’ orders to the market makers to fill. As such, Robinhood’s revenue still depends heavily on the users’ trading frequency and volume even though it doesn’t take any commission out of the trades.The company’s rumored IPO valuation of $40 billion represents a significant premium to its peers. It is hard to justify such a premium since it is difficult to gauge Robinhood’s future growth which is largely dependent on its users’ trading frequency and volume in the future.In addition to the company’s over-reliance on the payment for order flow and its potentially rich valuation, there are also significant regulatory concerns. The downside risk is simply too high and outweighs any growth potential the company could still have in the long run.

Sheerly looking at Robinhood’s recent financial performance, one might conclude it has embarked on an impressive growth journey and could be a recent success story of Silicon Valley.The payment for order flow generates the majority of its revenue as it sells the clients’ orders to the market makers to fill. As such, Robinhood’s revenue still depends heavily on the users’ trading frequency and volume even though it doesn’t take any commission out of the trades.The company’s rumored IPO valuation of $40 billion represents a significant premium to its peers. It is hard to justify such a premium since it is difficult to gauge Robinhood’s future growth which is largely dependent on its users’ trading frequency and volume in the future.In addition to the company’s over-reliance on the payment for order flow and its potentially rich valuation, there are also significant regulatory concerns. The downside risk is simply too high and outweighs any growth potential the company could still have in the long run.

Robinhood IPO: Downside Risk Could Outweigh Any Potential Future Upside

United States

The Charles Schwab Corporation provides a variety of financial services to individual investors, independent investment managers, retirement plans, and institutions.  The Company provides its clients with securities brokerage, banking, and related financial services through offices in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United Kingdom.

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Schwab (Charles) (SCHW US)

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We...

Arun George

JOET: Preventing Momentum Crash Risk With Quality Overlay

The Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF has solid risk attribution, especially pertaining to downside risk. The fund neglects idiosyncratic...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Robinhood IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Robinhood is implied market cap of US$25.1 billion or US$29.8 per share, which is 25% lower than the mid-point of the...

Douglas Kim

Robinhood IPO: Downside Risk Could Outweigh Any Potential Future Upside

Although Robinhood had an impressive growth in recent years, the downside risk, in relation to its over-reliance on PFOF and the regulatory...

Alec Tseung

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: An IPO Price Range in the Wake of the Bank Share Sell-Off

Despite the bank sell-off, SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the new IPO price range of JPY1,200-1,260 per share. We would participate in...

Arun George

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We...

Arun George

JOET: Preventing Momentum Crash Risk With Quality Overlay

The Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF has solid risk attribution, especially pertaining to downside risk. The fund neglects idiosyncratic...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Robinhood IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Robinhood is implied market cap of US$25.1 billion or US$29.8 per share, which is 25% lower than the mid-point of the...

Douglas Kim

Robinhood IPO: Downside Risk Could Outweigh Any Potential Future Upside

Although Robinhood had an impressive growth in recent years, the downside risk, in relation to its over-reliance on PFOF and the regulatory...

Alec Tseung