Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.</li>
<li>In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.


Tokyo Electron (TEL):  Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Jensen in the White House did little to help NVDA on the spectre of further restrictions.</li>
<li>NEC +18% in one of its biggest moves ever on Friday as defense takes a bigger role.</li>
<li>Screen and Lasertec both reported earnings beats but its a mixed bag for both under the hood.</li>
</ul>


Jensen in the White House did little to help NVDA on the spectre of further restrictions.
NEC +18% in one of its biggest moves ever on Friday as defense takes a bigger role.
Screen and Lasertec both reported earnings beats but its a mixed bag for both under the hood.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Tariffs Set to Roil Markets to Start the Week

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.</li>
<li>China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> shares have benefited from this trend.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.
</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.
China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) shares have benefited from this trend.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

<ul>
<li>Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.</li>
<li>Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.</li>
<li>DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.</li>
</ul>


Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.
Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.
DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

<ul>
<li>Japan saw big gains for SPE in the last 15 mins of trading on the TSMC capex outlook which should continue today.</li>
<li>Luxury names got a shot in the arm from Richemont numbers overnight so likes of Shiseido and Kose  may see a knee jerk higher.</li>
<li>Nintendo looks to have largely priced in the Switch 2, but upside remains for component makers.</li>
</ul>


Japan saw big gains for SPE in the last 15 mins of trading on the TSMC capex outlook which should continue today.
Luxury names got a shot in the arm from Richemont numbers overnight so likes of Shiseido and Kose  may see a knee jerk higher.
Nintendo looks to have largely priced in the Switch 2, but upside remains for component makers.


Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Japan

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

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SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP)

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Tariffs Set to Roil Markets to Start the Week

NVDA down as further tariff and export restrictions expected, NEC makes biggest move as defence comes into focus in JP, Screen and Lasertec beat...

Andrew Jackson

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Gains due to positive outlook from TSMC should continue today, Richemont numbers may see Shiseido and Kose higher, component makers for Nintendo...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

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P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

​Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Tariffs Set to Roil Markets to Start the Week

NVDA down as further tariff and export restrictions expected, NEC makes biggest move as defence comes into focus in JP, Screen and Lasertec beat...

Andrew Jackson

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

​Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Gains due to positive outlook from TSMC should continue today, Richemont numbers may see Shiseido and Kose higher, component makers for Nintendo...

Andrew Jackson

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...