Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats, Moat Investing

Moat Investing

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats

We are a group of experienced investors that like to dig deeper into stocks to find growth stories at a reasonable price with strong economic moats. We also aim to conduct high-quality analysis by doing deep dive on valuations, key business drivers, risk/reward, and different future scenarios.

GARP with strong economic moats

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In our last update on the stock, it was trading at $330 per share, up 20% from April when we considered the stock almost fairly valued in the best scenario.</li>
<li>Despite the recent sharp market correction, the mismatch is still in place and is even more evident considering sharp consensus downward revision going on after Q3 report.</li>
<li>Despite the fact the SE remains one of the most exciting growth equity stories, valuation has been insane for a while as expectations (especially around around Garena) were far too high.</li>
</ul>


In our last update on the stock, it was trading at $330 per share, up 20% from April when we considered the stock almost fairly valued in the best scenario.
Despite the recent sharp market correction, the mismatch is still in place and is even more evident considering sharp consensus downward revision going on after Q3 report.
Despite the fact the SE remains one of the most exciting growth equity stories, valuation has been insane for a while as expectations (especially around around Garena) were far too high.


<ul>
<li>Since our first valuation of the stock, the price has gone up more than 20%. At that time, we considered the company to be fairly valued in the best scenario.</li>
<li>Our approach now is similar but instead of stretching consensus, we rely on it and check what is the implied discount rate which delivers the current share price.</li>
<li>We have tried to assess the most appropriate discount rate and we believe there is enough evidence of a current mismatch between current valuation and the appropriate discount rate.</li>
<li>The main risks we see are the expectations around Garena and its embedded valuation and the regulatory risks on its marketplace which might lead to new taxes in SE markets.</li>
</ul>


Since our first valuation of the stock, the price has gone up more than 20%. At that time, we considered the company to be fairly valued in the best scenario.
Our approach now is similar but instead of stretching consensus, we rely on it and check what is the implied discount rate which delivers the current share price.
We have tried to assess the most appropriate discount rate and we believe there is enough evidence of a current mismatch between current valuation and the appropriate discount rate.
The main risks we see are the expectations around Garena and its embedded valuation and the regulatory risks on its marketplace which might lead to new taxes in SE markets.


Sea Limited: It's All About Expectations And Discount Rate

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Granite Bay Capital

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Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).</p>

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).

<ul>
<li>We are extremely positive on MercadoLibre and Ozon.</li>
<li>Sea Limited is also one of our top stocks even though we think valuation is stretched.</li>
<li>Growth in 2020 has been fueled by the pandemic, although the process was already in place.</li>
<li>Top online marketplaces globally accounted for $2.67 trillion in 2020, of which Taobao, Tmall, and Amazon represented 2/3.</li>
<li>Emerging marketplaces are disrupting traditional commerce platforms and posing new challenges to the banking sector and the global supply chain.</li>
</ul>


We are extremely positive on MercadoLibre and Ozon.
Sea Limited is also one of our top stocks even though we think valuation is stretched.
Growth in 2020 has been fueled by the pandemic, although the process was already in place.
Top online marketplaces globally accounted for $2.67 trillion in 2020, of which Taobao, Tmall, and Amazon represented 2/3.
Emerging marketplaces are disrupting traditional commerce platforms and posing new challenges to the banking sector and the global supply chain.


Why Emerging Marketplaces MercadoLibre, Ozon, And Sea Limited Will Continue Creating Value Long Term

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dasin-retail-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23743" rel="noopener">Dasin Retail Trust (DASIN SP)</a> terminates partnership with ARA Group; Enters into MoU with Sino-Ocean Capital Holding</h3><ul><li>The board of directors of Dasin Retail Trust Management has been informed by Mr. Zhang Zhencheng, Chairman and controlling shareholder of Dasin Retail Trust Management, as well as Aqua Wealth, a controlling unitholder of DASIN, that all relevant parties have agreed to terminate the SPA and will not be proceeding with the proposed transaction under the sales and purchase agreement</li><li>On the other hand, Mr Zhang Zhencheng had entered into a non-binding MOU with Sino-Ocean Capital Holding Limited on 5Jul21 in pursuance of a strategic partnership. Sino-Ocean Capital is a domestic real estate fund management company, and an alternative asset management company in China. Sino-Ocean Capital currently holds ~6.36% of the total issued units in DASIN via its affiliate Glory Class Ventures Limited</li><li>The Sino-Ocean Capital Partnership will involve an acquisition by Sino-Ocean Capital, Glory Class or any affiliate designated by Sino-Ocean Capital of 70.0% of the total issued share capital in Dasin Retail Trust Management from Mr. Zhang Zhencheng. In conjunction with this acquisition, Sino-Ocean Capital may also acquire such number of units in DASIN from Aqua Wealth which, when added to the units in DASIN currently held by Glory Class, will be no less than 25% of the total issued units in DASIN. The terms of the Sino-Ocean Capital Partnership will be subject to the execution of legally binding definitive documents between the parties which is expected to take place in Jul21</li><li>DASIN is also currently seeking to secure the refinancing of the offshore facilities and to that end is working to obtain the approvals for the refinancing from all the banks within the syndicate of lenders, while contemplating other possible solutions, including applying for a further extension.</li></ul>

SingaporeDasin Retail Trust (DASIN SP) terminates partnership with ARA Group; Enters into MoU with Sino-Ocean Capital HoldingThe board of directors of Dasin Retail Trust Management has been informed by Mr. Zhang Zhencheng, Chairman and controlling shareholder of Dasin Retail Trust Management, as well as Aqua Wealth, a controlling unitholder of DASIN, that all relevant parties have agreed to terminate the SPA and will not be proceeding with the proposed transaction under the sales and purchase agreementOn the other hand, Mr Zhang Zhencheng had entered into a non-binding MOU with Sino-Ocean Capital Holding Limited on 5Jul21 in pursuance of a strategic partnership. Sino-Ocean Capital is a domestic real estate fund management company, and an alternative asset management company in China. Sino-Ocean Capital currently holds ~6.36% of the total issued units in DASIN via its affiliate Glory Class Ventures LimitedThe Sino-Ocean Capital Partnership will involve an acquisition by Sino-Ocean Capital, Glory Class or any affiliate designated by Sino-Ocean Capital of 70.0% of the total issued share capital in Dasin Retail Trust Management from Mr. Zhang Zhencheng. In conjunction with this acquisition, Sino-Ocean Capital may also acquire such number of units in DASIN from Aqua Wealth which, when added to the units in DASIN currently held by Glory Class, will be no less than 25% of the total issued units in DASIN. The terms of the Sino-Ocean Capital Partnership will be subject to the execution of legally binding definitive documents between the parties which is expected to take place in Jul21DASIN is also currently seeking to secure the refinancing of the offshore facilities and to that end is working to obtain the approvals for the refinancing from all the banks within the syndicate of lenders, while contemplating other possible solutions, including applying for a further extension.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (6Jul21) - DASIN Terminates ARA Partnership

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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