President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Equity Bottom-Up

Marvell’s Analyst Day presentations showed the company’s commitment to storage management and networking.  Their semiconductor products enable customized SSDs, universal NVMe over Fabric connectivity, including with HDDs, and enable DPU accelerator-based solutions for storage management from autonomous automobiles and IOT applications to data centers.

Marvell’s Analyst Day presentations showed the company’s commitment to storage management and networking.  Their semiconductor products enable customized SSDs, universal NVMe over Fabric connectivity, including with HDDs, and enable DPU accelerator-based solutions for storage management from autonomous automobiles and IOT applications to data centers.

Marvell Technologies Advances: Positive for Company’s Future

Seagate Technology Holdings PL / Equity Bottom-Up

After the pandemic ends, work will not be the same.  Although face to face interactions are important, many people will continue to do some work at home.  Likewise, many people will use telecommunication tools rather than travel for more remote interactions than in the past.  This will drive demand for data center processin, network and storage resources to support these trends and thus drive demand for high capacity HDDs, high performance SSDs and low-cost tape storage solutions.

After the pandemic ends, work will not be the same.  Although face to face interactions are important, many people will continue to do some work at home.  Likewise, many people will use telecommunication tools rather than travel for more remote interactions than in the past.  This will drive demand for data center processin, network and storage resources to support these trends and thus drive demand for high capacity HDDs, high performance SSDs and low-cost tape storage solutions.

2021 High Conviction, The Pandemic Will Drive HDD Nearline Capacity Shipment Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High capacity HDDs, particularly nearline drives for enterprise and hyper scale data centers are the one growth area for HDDs going forward.  We project that growth in demand for nearline storage could stop the decline in HDD shipments by 2024-2025.   The growth of capacity-oriented nearline drives will result in more components per drive out to 2025.  We project that total shipments of heads and media will exceed the peak in 2014 by 2024-2025, largely due to the growth of high capacity (many heads and media) hard disk drives.

High capacity HDDs, particularly nearline drives for enterprise and hyper scale data centers are the one growth area for HDDs going forward.  We project that growth in demand for nearline storage could stop the decline in HDD shipments by 2024-2025.   The growth of capacity-oriented nearline drives will result in more components per drive out to 2025.  We project that total shipments of heads and media will exceed the peak in 2014 by 2024-2025, largely due to the growth of high capacity (many heads and media) hard disk drives.

HDD C3Q Results, Continued Decline in Units but Growth in High Capacity HDDs

Seagate is seeing a tapering off of the nearline HDD buy to support cloud services during the Covid-19 pandemic.  However, sales of these HDDs and mass storage HDDs for video and related big data applications will be continued drivers for sales into calendar 2021.  The company said that 63% of their HDD revenue in C3Q 2020 was from mass capacity HDDs, including nearline HDDs.  The company also expects some consumer rebound for HDDs in 2021.  In the long run, the conversion to majority mass capacity HDDs will raise ASPs and by 2024-2025 start to increase total HDD unit shipments, further driving revenue and profitability.

Seagate is seeing a tapering off of the nearline HDD buy to support cloud services during the Covid-19 pandemic.  However, sales of these HDDs and mass storage HDDs for video and related big data applications will be continued drivers for sales into calendar 2021.  The company said that 63% of their HDD revenue in C3Q 2020 was from mass capacity HDDs, including nearline HDDs.  The company also expects some consumer rebound for HDDs in 2021.  In the long run, the conversion to majority mass capacity HDDs will raise ASPs and by 2024-2025 start to increase total HDD unit shipments, further driving revenue and profitability.

Seagate:  Long Term Opportunities with Mass Storage HDDs

Breaking up WDC into a separate HDD and flash memory businesses could create two viable storage companies, that over time will provide value to very different, but potentially symbiotic, uses.  The HDD business will become enterprise and especially data center focused, while an NAND flash business will seek to gain market share as a way to moderate and better survive the NAND flash boom/bust cycles.

Breaking up WDC into a separate HDD and flash memory businesses could create two viable storage companies, that over time will provide value to very different, but potentially symbiotic, uses.  The HDD business will become enterprise and especially data center focused, while an NAND flash business will seek to gain market share as a way to moderate and better survive the NAND flash boom/bust cycles.

Potential WDC Breakup, Positive Implications

United States

Seagate Technology Holdings Public Limited Company offers computer hardware products. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets hard disk drives for enterprise applications, client compute applications, client non-compute applications, personal data backup systems, portable external storage systems and digital media systems.

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Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX US)

Marvell Technologies Advances: Positive for Company’s Future

Marvell’s semiconductor products enable enable the next generation of accelerator-based solutions for network and storage management from...

Thomas Coughlin

2021 High Conviction, The Pandemic Will Drive HDD Nearline Capacity Shipment Growth

This 2021 high conviction article shows why nearline HDD storage will continue to grow in 2021, driven by data center expansion plans that were...

Thomas Coughlin

HDD C3Q Results, Continued Decline in Units but Growth in High Capacity HDDs

HDD Annual Shipments in continued decline, high capacity HDD shipments expected to grow. C3Q benefited from consumer sales and continued capacity...

Thomas Coughlin

Seagate: Long Term Opportunities with Mass Storage HDDs

Seagate Technology quarterly results show 63% of revenue from Mass Capacity HDDs and long term mass capacity HDD growth, demonstrating medium and...

Thomas Coughlin

Potential WDC Breakup, Positive Implications

WDC may be considering breaking up its HDD and NAND flash business. Find out how these separate businesses might fare on their own.

Thomas Coughlin

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