Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The recent rally has taken <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)</a>' stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.</li>
<li>While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.</li>
</ul>


The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)' stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.


Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 FY26: Sales up +6% YoY but profits softer on transport and hotel margins.</li>
<li>Guidance Raised: FY26 OP lifted +20% on fare hikes, ridership recovery, and real estate monetization.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ¥5,268, shares trade at a 47% discount to SoTP (¥9,916) </li>
</ul>


Q1 FY26: Sales up +6% YoY but profits softer on transport and hotel margins.
Guidance Raised: FY26 OP lifted +20% on fare hikes, ridership recovery, and real estate monetization.
Valuation: At ¥5,268, shares trade at a 47% discount to SoTP (¥9,916) 


Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) – Fare Hike, Tourism Rebound, and Deep Value

<ul>
<li>Seibu’s FY25 results were buoyed by a ¥350 bn real estate securitization, driving operating profit to ¥263 bn and showcasing the deep value embedded in its property portfolio.</li>
<li>Management plans to monetize ~¥1.35 trillion of urban assets over the next 3–5 years, shift to a capital-light hotel model, and revitalize transport margins via fare revisions.</li>
<li>Even at the current price of ¥4,868, Seibu trades at a ~45% discount to its fully adjusted SoTP value (~¥8,873/share)—implying substantial re-rating potential if monetization proceeds as planned.</li>
</ul>


Seibu’s FY25 results were buoyed by a ¥350 bn real estate securitization, driving operating profit to ¥263 bn and showcasing the deep value embedded in its property portfolio.
Management plans to monetize ~¥1.35 trillion of urban assets over the next 3–5 years, shift to a capital-light hotel model, and revitalize transport margins via fare revisions.
Even at the current price of ¥4,868, Seibu trades at a ~45% discount to its fully adjusted SoTP value (~¥8,873/share)—implying substantial re-rating potential if monetization proceeds as planned.


Seibu Holdings (TSE: 9024) – Asset-Rich Platform With Significant Upside from Monetization

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tension between China and Japan look set to rise further with talks failing to ease frictions.</li>
<li>Travel names remain vulnerable despite Govt. run tour groups having less clout than they used to.</li>
<li>Medtech may do better on defensive bid and Medtronic, but Sysmex continues to slide.</li>
</ul>


Tension between China and Japan look set to rise further with talks failing to ease frictions.
Travel names remain vulnerable despite Govt. run tour groups having less clout than they used to.
Medtech may do better on defensive bid and Medtronic, but Sysmex continues to slide.


Japan Morning Connection: More AI and Tech Pain Ahead of NVDA Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>MS downgrades PC makers on risk high memory prices eat into margins.</li>
<li>China angst against Takaichi TW comments will cause JP rails, hotels etc. to fall further.</li>
<li>Advantest CEO meeting yesterday unlikely enough to appease investor demands after huge run.</li>
</ul>


MS downgrades PC makers on risk high memory prices eat into margins.
China angst against Takaichi TW comments will cause JP rails, hotels etc. to fall further.
Advantest CEO meeting yesterday unlikely enough to appease investor demands after huge run.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

Japan

Seibu Holdings Inc. offers diversified operation. The Company through its subsidiary companies operates transportation, construction, hotel, leisure facilities, and real estate business. Seibu Holdings provides group enterprises strategy planning, operation management, asset management and supply, and business promotions.

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Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)