Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One of the sectors we like for the next phase of the Japanese stock market</li>
<li>The market is not giving the benefit of the doubt to monetisation of its property portfolio</li>
<li>The core  railway business is back to pre-Covid 19  levels</li>
</ul>


One of the sectors we like for the next phase of the Japanese stock market
The market is not giving the benefit of the doubt to monetisation of its property portfolio
The core  railway business is back to pre-Covid 19  levels


All Aboard! JR East and the Monetisation of Its Property Assets

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.</li>
<li>Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.</li>
<li>Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.</li>
</ul>


Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.
Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.
Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. </li>
<li>The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.</li>
<li>Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.</li>
</ul>


Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. 
The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.
Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.


Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

<ul>
<li>The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.</li>
<li>Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.</li>
<li>Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.</li>
</ul>


The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.
Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.
Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.


Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Japan

Seibu Holdings Inc. offers diversified operation. The Company through its subsidiary companies operates transportation, construction, hotel, leisure facilities, and real estate business. Seibu Holdings provides group enterprises strategy planning, operation management, asset management and supply, and business promotions.

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Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)

All Aboard! JR East and the Monetisation of Its Property Assets

An undervalued sector in the Japanese stock market which is at the intersection of a few key themes including activism, raising returns and...

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Tourism is back in Japan, both domestic and inbound. We outline some of the key beneficiaries and expectations for a return to 2019 levels by next...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

All Aboard! JR East and the Monetisation of Its Property Assets

An undervalued sector in the Japanese stock market which is at the intersection of a few key themes including activism, raising returns and...

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

​Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

​Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Tourism is back in Japan, both domestic and inbound. We outline some of the key beneficiaries and expectations for a return to 2019 levels by next...

Michael Causton

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...