External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Semen Indonesia (Gresik) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.</li><li>The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.</li><li>However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus estimates.The net profit plummeted by -16.0% YoY to IDR472bn with NPM of 5.6%, reflecting 20.5%/17.6% of MNCS/Consensus target.However, we estimate a probability that SMGR will cut its ASP due to declining volume, while supply may potentially increase with the new player entering Indonesian market (Hongshi Group).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given weak ASP, we lower our FY24F/ FY25F EPS by 21%/20% as we cut our FY24 ASP hike assumption to 0% to -1.5% (vs. +1%-2% prev.).</li><li>We also expect lower FY24F/FY25F vol growth of 1.5%/2.5% (from 2.6%/3%), as we observe slower bagged cement market recovery.</li><li>We downgrade our sector rating to Neutral from Overweight; we switch our top pick to INTP, but with an 16% lower TP of Rp 8,400.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given weak ASP, we lower our FY24F/ FY25F EPS by 21%/20% as we cut our FY24 ASP hike assumption to 0% to -1.5% (vs. +1%-2% prev.).We also expect lower FY24F/FY25F vol growth of 1.5%/2.5% (from 2.6%/3%), as we observe slower bagged cement market recovery.We downgrade our sector rating to Neutral from Overweight; we switch our top pick to INTP, but with an 16% lower TP of Rp 8,400.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Downgrade Sector to Neutral on Weak ASP and Lower Demand

<ul><li>We expect the IKN project to help sustain industry growth and estimate industry’s 2.6%/3% vol growth for 2024F/25F and 3%-4% for 2026F-30F. </li><li>We foresee FY24-26F ROE to gradually improve, driven by steady volume growth and margins improvement from lesser ASP pressure.</li><li>We reinitiate coverage with an Overweight rating as improving ROE is yet to be priced in. Our top pick is SMGR (Buy, TP Rp8,600).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the IKN project to help sustain industry growth and estimate industry’s 2.6%/3% vol growth for 2024F/25F and 3%-4% for 2026F-30F. We foresee FY24-26F ROE to gradually improve, driven by steady volume growth and margins improvement from lesser ASP pressure.We reinitiate coverage with an Overweight rating as improving ROE is yet to be priced in. Our top pick is SMGR (Buy, TP Rp8,600).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement: Improving S-D with IKN as Demand Driver

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.</li><li>While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.</li><li>This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

<ul><li>The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including Indonesia</li><li>While China's weak growth is a concern, the impact might be offset by better growth in other G20 economies, supporting the narrative of a soft landing towards the year-end, which may help mitigate potential volatility in asset prices</li><li>Domestic economic activity has been lacklustre, with more companies reporting lower-than-expected results</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including IndonesiaWhile China's weak growth is a concern, the impact might be offset by better growth in other G20 economies, supporting the narrative of a soft landing towards the year-end, which may help mitigate potential volatility in asset pricesDomestic economic activity has been lacklustre, with more companies reporting lower-than-expected resultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Not All Is Well

Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR IJ) - Facing Challenges Head-On

SMGR recorded a revenue of IDR8.4tn in 1Q24, marking a contraction of -6.3% YoY (vs IDR8.9tn in FY22) and reflecting 21.3%/20.8% of MNCS/Consensus...

MNC Sekuritas

Cement: Downgrade Sector to Neutral on Weak ASP and Lower Demand

Given weak ASP, we lower our FY24F/ FY25F EPS by 21%/20% as we cut our FY24 ASP hike assumption to 0% to -1.5% (vs. +1%-2% prev.).

BRI Danareksa Research

Cement: Improving S-D with IKN as Demand Driver

We expect the IKN project to help sustain industry growth and estimate industry’s 2.6%/3% vol growth for 2024F/25F and 3%-4% for 2026F-30F.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Not All Is Well

The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including Indonesia

BRI Danareksa Research

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