Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.</li>
<li>Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.</li>
<li>There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.
Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.
There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.


Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>China's disappointing April-June GDP growth underscores domestic consumption weakness. Exports continue to skyrocket. Export resilience in power and automobiles, along with higher overseas margins benefit companies with sustainable foreign revenues.</li>
<li>In 2026, technology, industrials, energy have outperformed. The first two fit the theme of advanced manufacturing and technology-enablers. Combining this with robust overseas revenues, a set of stocks stand out.</li>
<li>Among these stocks, CATL, Geely, Weichai Power and CNOOC figure in our Model Portfolio.</li>
</ul>


China's disappointing April-June GDP growth underscores domestic consumption weakness. Exports continue to skyrocket. Export resilience in power and automobiles, along with higher overseas margins benefit companies with sustainable foreign revenues.
In 2026, technology, industrials, energy have outperformed. The first two fit the theme of advanced manufacturing and technology-enablers. Combining this with robust overseas revenues, a set of stocks stand out.
Among these stocks, CATL, Geely, Weichai Power and CNOOC figure in our Model Portfolio.


Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CXMT Corp is launching an IPO of 6.69 to 7.69 billion shares to raise up to 66.6 billion yuan to expand its DRAM production.</li>
<li>As the world’s fourth-largest producer of DRAM, CXMT has emerged as Beijing’s primary opportunity to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.</li>
<li>CXMT is rapidly expanding capacity, with output projected to double by 2030.  Concurrently, the company is striving to control all four stages of chip production: design, manufacturing, testing, and packaging. </li>
</ul>


CXMT Corp is launching an IPO of 6.69 to 7.69 billion shares to raise up to 66.6 billion yuan to expand its DRAM production.
As the world’s fourth-largest producer of DRAM, CXMT has emerged as Beijing’s primary opportunity to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
CXMT is rapidly expanding capacity, with output projected to double by 2030.  Concurrently, the company is striving to control all four stages of chip production: design, manufacturing, testing, and packaging. 


IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>TSMC's CoWoS and 2nm GAA lead is structurally uncontested through 2028; AI capex compounds an already-unrivalled wafer and packaging monopoly.</li>
<li>Re-Rating catalyst is Q2 2026 earnings (TSMC 16 Jul, UMC 29 Jul, Hua Hong 6 Aug) testing whether fundamentals can support stock prices that have surged 200–500%.</li>
<li>Sector call: 2 BUY (TSMC, GlobalFoundries), 1 NEUTRAL (SMIC), 2 SELL (UMC, Hua Hong Grace).</li>
</ul>


TSMC's CoWoS and 2nm GAA lead is structurally uncontested through 2028; AI capex compounds an already-unrivalled wafer and packaging monopoly.
Re-Rating catalyst is Q2 2026 earnings (TSMC 16 Jul, UMC 29 Jul, Hua Hong 6 Aug) testing whether fundamentals can support stock prices that have surged 200–500%.
Sector call: 2 BUY (TSMC, GlobalFoundries), 1 NEUTRAL (SMIC), 2 SELL (UMC, Hua Hong Grace).


Semiconductor Foundry Handbook 2026 — One Monopoly, Two Disconnected Valuations

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market continued its downtrend over the last month.  The technology, materials, consumer, and healthcare sectors have declined in 2026, with the industrials sector showing the best performance.</li>
<li>Dividend and value factors have outperformed in 2026, while growth and momentum have declined.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-co-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)</a> was initiated as OVERWEIGHT by Barclays, with a target price implying 35% upside.
</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market continued its downtrend over the last month.  The technology, materials, consumer, and healthcare sectors have declined in 2026, with the industrials sector showing the best performance.
Dividend and value factors have outperformed in 2026, while growth and momentum have declined.  

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) was initiated as OVERWEIGHT by Barclays, with a target price implying 35% upside.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (6/22/26)

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s memory giant opened books for an initial public offering to raise $9.8 billion, the second...

David Mudd

Semiconductor Foundry Handbook 2026 — One Monopoly, Two Disconnected Valuations

Five foundries, one true monopoly, two stocks priced for a fantasy. The EV/EBITDA-vs-ROIC framework that tells you which is which — before Q2...

Mo Aziz

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (6/22/26)

The HK market continued its downtrend over the last month. The technology, materials, consumer, and healthcare sectors have declined in 2026, with...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

​China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

IPO WATCH China Semiconductors: CXMT - Gaining in the DRAM Battlefield

CXMT ignited a rush among retail investors as China’s memory giant opened books for an initial public offering to raise $9.8 billion, the second...

David Mudd

Semiconductor Foundry Handbook 2026 — One Monopoly, Two Disconnected Valuations

Five foundries, one true monopoly, two stocks priced for a fantasy. The EV/EBITDA-vs-ROIC framework that tells you which is which — before Q2...

Mo Aziz

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (6/22/26)

The HK market continued its downtrend over the last month. The technology, materials, consumer, and healthcare sectors have declined in 2026, with...

David Mudd

China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...