Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.</li>
<li>China's platform companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> have released their own AI models.</li>
<li>As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.
China's platform companies like Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) , Tencent (700 HK) , Baidu (9888 HK) , and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) have released their own AI models.
As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.


DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>From July's recent peak of US$17.3bn, onshore investors' net Southbound buying declined to US$14.3 bn in August. Average daily turnover continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$19.8bn.</li>
<li>Buying in Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba re-commenced, after selling for 3-4 months. The semiconductor giants - SMIC and Hua Hong - are being bought as well. </li>
<li>Investors' long-standing preferences for e-commerce, food delivery, biotech and dividends continue. Meituan and Kuaishou continue to be bought, despite the recent losses. Akeso, XTALPI and Innovent occupy the biotech space.</li>
</ul>


From July's recent peak of US$17.3bn, onshore investors' net Southbound buying declined to US$14.3 bn in August. Average daily turnover continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$19.8bn.
Buying in Tencent, Xiaomi and Alibaba re-commenced, after selling for 3-4 months. The semiconductor giants - SMIC and Hua Hong - are being bought as well. 
Investors' long-standing preferences for e-commerce, food delivery, biotech and dividends continue. Meituan and Kuaishou continue to be bought, despite the recent losses. Akeso, XTALPI and Innovent occupy the biotech space.


Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets</li>
<li>Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities</li>
<li>The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards</li>
</ul>


The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets
Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities
The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards


Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

<ul>
<li>July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.</li>
<li>Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.</li>
<li>Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.</li>
</ul>


July’s $17.28 bn inflow through Southbound was almost triple of that of the May low ($5.85bn). The flows are now on track to recovering to the March-April peak of $20-22bn.
Investors continue buying dividend plays (CCB), sharp decliners (Meituan), policy beneficiaries (SMIC). Kuaishou and Alibaba were bought after being sold recently. Biotechnology (Innovent, Akeso) and insurance (ChinaLife) are new favorites.
Expensive consumers and consumer proxies (Pop Mart, Tencent, Xiaomi) continue to be sold. Last three months selling in Xiaomi and Tencent have almost wiped out their cumulative 12 month's buying.


Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

ASR Microelectronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ASR Microelectronics, a fabless designer of cellular connectivity chips and AI SoCs, is seeking an A+H listing. MS and Haitong are the joint sponsors.</li>
<li>We look at the company's three segments: wireless connectivity chips, smart device SoCs and custom ASIC solutions.</li>
<li>We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


ASR Microelectronics, a fabless designer of cellular connectivity chips and AI SoCs, is seeking an A+H listing. MS and Haitong are the joint sponsors.
We look at the company's three segments: wireless connectivity chips, smart device SoCs and custom ASIC solutions.
We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.


ASR Microelectronics (翱捷科技) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (688981 CH)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (688981 CH)

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

Southbound buying declined in Aug, but avg daily turnover hit an all-time high. Buying resumed in Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba & Hua Hong. Food...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

ASR Microelectronics (翱捷科技) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

ASR Microelectronics is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide our early...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly - Slowdown in August but Renewed Enthusiasm for Tech Superstars

Southbound buying declined in Aug, but avg daily turnover hit an all-time high. Buying resumed in Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba & Hua Hong. Food...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Asian Equity: Southbound Monthly- July Boom; New Darlings: Insurance, Biotech; Pricey Consumers Sold

July ​Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

ASR Microelectronics (翱捷科技) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

ASR Microelectronics is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide our early...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

July Southbound flow nearly tripled from May's low, on track to reach Mar-Apr peak. Investors like dividend plays, policy beneficiaries & recently...