Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK: US orders halt of 7nm processor sales to China (+/+/-/-)</li>
<li>XPEV US/1810 HK:Xpeng P7+’s pre-order exceeded 30,000 in the first day, posing a challenge to Xiaomi SU7.(///)</li>
<li>1810 HK: Sales of Xiaomi 15 series break 1mn units, faster than prior model (+)</li>
</ul>


981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK: US orders halt of 7nm processor sales to China (+/+/-/-)
XPEV US/1810 HK:Xpeng P7+’s pre-order exceeded 30,000 in the first day, posing a challenge to Xiaomi SU7.(///)
1810 HK: Sales of Xiaomi 15 series break 1mn units, faster than prior model (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

<ul>
<li>We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;</li>
<li>A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;</li>
<li>To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.</li>
</ul>


We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;
A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;
To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.


If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

<ul>
<li>While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; </li>
<li>ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off</li>
<li>For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.</li>
</ul>


While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; 
ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off
For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.


What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>Despite wide-spread social media expectations of China's electronics industry benefiting from Middle East supply chain disruptions following explosive incidents, September trade data suggested otherwise;</li>
<li>Middle East exports declined 2.1% yoy, underperforming other regions, while electronics were worse, declining 7.0% yoy. Communication device exports to Iran, Palestine and Lebanon were among the worst performing categories;</li>
<li>This suggests terrorist related trade was a negligible portion. As customs data are two-way verifiable, we believe we can safely conclude China doesn't benefit from the war in Mid East.</li>
</ul>


Despite wide-spread social media expectations of China's electronics industry benefiting from Middle East supply chain disruptions following explosive incidents, September trade data suggested otherwise;
Middle East exports declined 2.1% yoy, underperforming other regions, while electronics were worse, declining 7.0% yoy. Communication device exports to Iran, Palestine and Lebanon were among the worst performing categories;
This suggests terrorist related trade was a negligible portion. As customs data are two-way verifiable, we believe we can safely conclude China doesn't benefit from the war in Mid East.


Did China Exports Really Benefit from the Israel/Lebanon Pager Attack?

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge</li>
<li>The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend</li>
<li>When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge
The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend
When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon


China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

​US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

​Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

​Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Did China Exports Really Benefit from the Israel/Lebanon Pager Attack?

Despite expectations, China's Middle East exports have yet to see benefit from the pager attacks. On the contrary, electronics and communication...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

​The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.