New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Serko (SKO) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, with a target price rising +1% to NZ$3.70.</li><li>Serko's core business is estimated to deliver &gt;NZ$35m of EBITDA by FY28, representing an EV/EBITDA multiple of ~8x.</li><li>Recent performance in SKO’s underlying business has been robust, with significant operating leverage achieved.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Serko (SKO) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, with a target price rising +1% to NZ$3.70.Serko's core business is estimated to deliver &gt;NZ$35m of EBITDA by FY28, representing an EV/EBITDA multiple of ~8x.Recent performance in SKO’s underlying business has been robust, with significant operating leverage achieved.

<ul><li>Serko reported weaker-than-expected revenue growth for FY25, with guidance for total income approximately 10% below consensus for FY26.</li><li>Integration costs for GetThere will be lower than previously thought, and the core business is now solidly cash-generative.</li><li>Despite the challenges, completed room-night (CRN) growth is expected to re-accelerate for B4B in FY26.</li></ul>

Serko reported weaker-than-expected revenue growth for FY25, with guidance for total income approximately 10% below consensus for FY26.Integration costs for GetThere will be lower than previously thought, and the core business is now solidly cash-generative.Despite the challenges, completed room-night (CRN) growth is expected to re-accelerate for B4B in FY26.

<ul><li>Serko (SKO) is expected to report a solid FY25 result with continued growth of the Booking.com for Business platform.</li><li>Outlook commentary may be cautious due to recent updates indicating a decline in corporate travel demand, particularly in the US.</li><li>Key focus areas include completed room-night growth for B4B, momentum with the US/GetThere platform, and progress towards SKO's integrated-platform vision.</li></ul>

Serko (SKO) is expected to report a solid FY25 result with continued growth of the Booking.com for Business platform.Outlook commentary may be cautious due to recent updates indicating a decline in corporate travel demand, particularly in the US.Key focus areas include completed room-night growth for B4B, momentum with the US/GetThere platform, and progress towards SKO's integrated-platform vision.

Serko - FY25 Preview—On the Right Flight Path

<ul><li>Three leading corporate travel management companies have downgraded guidance, citing negative impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US.</li><li>Serko's direct exposure to the US will increase significantly as GetThere is integrated, while Booking.com for Business generates a substantial portion of its revenue in Europe where demand remains robust.</li><li>Serko continues to look cheap relative to ANZ tech peers, but deteriorating US corporate travel demand exacerbates low confidence in GetThere's revenue trajectory.</li></ul>

Three leading corporate travel management companies have downgraded guidance, citing negative impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US.Serko's direct exposure to the US will increase significantly as GetThere is integrated, while Booking.com for Business generates a substantial portion of its revenue in Europe where demand remains robust.Serko continues to look cheap relative to ANZ tech peers, but deteriorating US corporate travel demand exacerbates low confidence in GetThere's revenue trajectory.

Serko - Uncertainty Clips the Wings of Travel Demand

<ul><li>Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of NZ$85m–NZ$92m for FY25.</li><li>We are cautious to overly extrapolate historic trends between visitations and completed room nights (CRN), given: (1) a limited number of data points; and (2) a likely weakening of the relationship between these variables.</li><li>As B4B’s user base matures, we expect users to spend more time managing travel versus booking it. </li></ul>

Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of NZ$85m–NZ$92m for FY25.We are cautious to overly extrapolate historic trends between visitations and completed room nights (CRN), given: (1) a limited number of data points; and (2) a likely weakening of the relationship between these variables.As B4B’s user base matures, we expect users to spend more time managing travel versus booking it. 

New Zealand

Serko Ltd operates as an online corporate travel booking and expense management company.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Serko Ltd (SKO NZ)

Serko Expectations Reset—Time to Fly

We upgrade our rating on Serko (SKO) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, with a target price rising +1% to NZ$3.70. Serko's core business is estimated to...

Forsyth Barr

Serko FY25 Result—US Takeoff Delayed

Serko reported weaker-than-expected revenue growth for FY25, with guidance for total income approximately 10% below consensus for FY26.

Forsyth Barr

Serko - FY25 Preview—On the Right Flight Path

Outlook commentary may be cautious due to recent updates indicating a decline in corporate travel demand, particularly in the US.

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Uncertainty Clips the Wings of Travel Demand

Three leading corporate travel management companies have downgraded guidance, citing negative impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly...

Forsyth Barr

Serko - Checking In on B4B Web Data

Web visitation data for Booking.com for Business (B4B) suggests that Serko (SKO) is tracking above the top end of its total income guidance of...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)