Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.</li>
<li>Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.</li>
<li>Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.</li>
</ul>


Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.
Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.
Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.


Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Vedanta (VEDL) recently emerged as the highest bidder in a fiercely competitive auction to acquire Jaiprakash Associates (JAL), a key player in the Indian infrastructure sector.</li>
<li>With an offer of INR 17,000 crore, Vedanta secured the company’s assets under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) resolution process.</li>
<li>While the deal presents an opportunity for Vedanta to expand its footprint in diverse sectors, several factors raise concerns about the financial sustainability and strategic risks associated with this acquisition.</li>
</ul>


Vedanta (VEDL) recently emerged as the highest bidder in a fiercely competitive auction to acquire Jaiprakash Associates (JAL), a key player in the Indian infrastructure sector.
With an offer of INR 17,000 crore, Vedanta secured the company’s assets under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) resolution process.
While the deal presents an opportunity for Vedanta to expand its footprint in diverse sectors, several factors raise concerns about the financial sustainability and strategic risks associated with this acquisition.


Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. </li>
<li>The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta</li>
<li>Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.</li>
</ul>


A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. 
The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial &amp; operational strength of Vedanta
Dividend &amp; delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.


Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

<ul>
<li>Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.</li>
<li>Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.</li>
<li>Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.</li>
</ul>


Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.


Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US)

Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

Vedanta wins bid for Jaiprakash Associates in competitive auction, but financial sustainability and strategic risks of acquisition raise concerns.

Sudarshan Bhandari

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

NCLAT allows Vedanta's demerger to proceed, with majority value in Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, offering 20%+ upside but facing risks of...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

​Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

​Vedanta wins bid for Jaiprakash Associates in competitive auction, but financial sustainability and strategic risks of acquisition raise concerns.

Sudarshan Bhandari

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

​Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

Nimish Maheshwari

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

​NCLAT allows Vedanta's demerger to proceed, with majority value in Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, offering 20%+ upside but facing risks of...

Rahul Jain

Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Vedanta wins bid for Jaiprakash Associates in competitive auction, but financial sustainability and strategic risks of acquisition raise concerns.

Foreign short seller accuses Vedanta Group of being a Ponzi scheme, citing aggressive dividends, debt-funded activities, and stagnancy in...

NCLAT allows Vedanta's demerger to proceed, with majority value in Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, offering 20%+ upside but facing risks of...