Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NCLT approval removes the key overhang, enabling Vedanta’s break-up and forcing valuation discovery across aluminium, zinc/silver, power and O&amp;G.</li>
<li>Aluminium becomes the anchor, with falling costs and ~50% EBITDA share; zinc and silver provide resilient cash flows and downside protection.</li>
<li>Intrinsic SOTP ₹1,020–1,050/share implies ~78–83% upside from CMP ₹572; execution-weighted 12-month TP ₹770 offers ~35% upside with downside protected even under stressed aluminium prices.</li>
</ul>


NCLT approval removes the key overhang, enabling Vedanta’s break-up and forcing valuation discovery across aluminium, zinc/silver, power and O&amp;G.
Aluminium becomes the anchor, with falling costs and ~50% EBITDA share; zinc and silver provide resilient cash flows and downside protection.
Intrinsic SOTP ₹1,020–1,050/share implies ~78–83% upside from CMP ₹572; execution-weighted 12-month TP ₹770 offers ~35% upside with downside protected even under stressed aluminium prices.


Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> will split into 5 independent listed entities: Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Oil &amp; Gas, Vedanta Power, Vedanta Iron &amp; Steel/Ferrous Materials, residual Vedanta Ltd (like zinc, silver). </li>
<li>Existing shareholders will receive one share in each of the 4 demerged entities for every one share held in Vedanta Ltd (1:1 ratio).</li>
<li>The Mumbai bench of NCLT approved Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) demerger plan on December 16 lead to streamline operations, improve management focus, and unlock shareholder value.</li>
</ul>



Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) will split into 5 independent listed entities: Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Oil &amp; Gas, Vedanta Power, Vedanta Iron &amp; Steel/Ferrous Materials, residual Vedanta Ltd (like zinc, silver). 
Existing shareholders will receive one share in each of the 4 demerged entities for every one share held in Vedanta Ltd (1:1 ratio).
The Mumbai bench of NCLT approved Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) demerger plan on December 16 lead to streamline operations, improve management focus, and unlock shareholder value.


Vedanta's Radical Split: 6 New Titans for a Post-Demerger World

<ul>
<li>Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.</li>
<li>Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.</li>
<li>Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.</li>
</ul>


Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.
Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.
Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.


Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>Vedanta (VEDL) recently emerged as the highest bidder in a fiercely competitive auction to acquire Jaiprakash Associates (JAL), a key player in the Indian infrastructure sector.</li>
<li>With an offer of INR 17,000 crore, Vedanta secured the company’s assets under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) resolution process.</li>
<li>While the deal presents an opportunity for Vedanta to expand its footprint in diverse sectors, several factors raise concerns about the financial sustainability and strategic risks associated with this acquisition.</li>
</ul>


Vedanta (VEDL) recently emerged as the highest bidder in a fiercely competitive auction to acquire Jaiprakash Associates (JAL), a key player in the Indian infrastructure sector.
With an offer of INR 17,000 crore, Vedanta secured the company’s assets under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) resolution process.
While the deal presents an opportunity for Vedanta to expand its footprint in diverse sectors, several factors raise concerns about the financial sustainability and strategic risks associated with this acquisition.


Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Hanwha TotalEnergies, Vedanta Resources.</li>
<li>Hanwha TotalEnergies Petrochemical (HTP) is a vertically integrated petrochemicals producer in South Korea.</li>
<li>The company produces a range of commodity chemicals, including base chemicals (olefins and aromatics), polymers (e.g. polyethylene and polypropylene) and energy products (jet fuel and diesel).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Hanwha TotalEnergies, Vedanta Resources.
Hanwha TotalEnergies Petrochemical (HTP) is a vertically integrated petrochemicals producer in South Korea.
The company produces a range of commodity chemicals, including base chemicals (olefins and aromatics), polymers (e.g. polyethylene and polypropylene) and energy products (jet fuel and diesel).


India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)

Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value

NCLT approval paves way for Vedanta's break-up, unlocking value across aluminium, zinc/silver, power, and O&G sectors with potential upside of 78...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta's Radical Split: 6 New Titans for a Post-Demerger World

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) to split into 5 independent listed entities, streamlining operations, improving focus, and unlocking shareholder value.

Nimish Maheshwari

Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

Vedanta wins bid for Jaiprakash Associates in competitive auction, but financial sustainability and strategic risks of acquisition raise concerns.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Hanwha TotalEnergies, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value

​NCLT approval paves way for Vedanta's break-up, unlocking value across aluminium, zinc/silver, power, and O&G sectors with potential upside of 78...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta's Radical Split: 6 New Titans for a Post-Demerger World

​Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) to split into 5 independent listed entities, streamlining operations, improving focus, and unlocking shareholder value.

Nimish Maheshwari

Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality

​Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

​Vedanta wins bid for Jaiprakash Associates in competitive auction, but financial sustainability and strategic risks of acquisition raise concerns.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Hanwha TotalEnergies, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics

NCLT approval paves way for Vedanta's break-up, unlocking value across aluminium, zinc/silver, power, and O&G sectors with potential upside of 78...

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) to split into 5 independent listed entities, streamlining operations, improving focus, and unlocking shareholder value.

Article highlights positive growth prospects for a company due to improved EBITDA mix, commodity leverage, and attractive valuation with high...

Vedanta wins bid for Jaiprakash Associates in competitive auction, but financial sustainability and strategic risks of acquisition raise concerns.